After 7 years of development, Microsoft cancels the new MMORPG project from the studio behind Elder Scrolls Online. For MeinMMO editor Karsten Scholz, this reflects a fundamental problem of the genre.
It has been just over 6 years since I first wrote about the new MMORPG project from Zenimax. At that time, it was studio head Matt Firor himself who spoke of an AAA game with a fresh IP. Numerous job postings accompanied the first information.
Since then, I used every meeting with Matt, Rich (Lambert, Game Director for The Elder Scrolls Online) and Kai (Schober, Community Manager at Bethesda) to at least ask: How is the project going? Is it perhaps clear when we will learn specific details? The answer was always a knowing smile and a shrug.
Yet, despite more and more years passing without an official presentation of the game, I was optimistic and extremely curious about the project. After all, there are hardly any ambitious MMORPGs being developed by large, experienced Western teams nowadays.
Zenimax has not only released one of the most successful genre representatives with Elder Scrolls Online, but the developers have also gained experience over many years that should positively affect upcoming projects. And there was also the acquisition by Microsoft, a tech giant that can practically print money. It has to work out!
While the first season of ESO is running, the new Zenimax MMORPG is coming to an end…
7 Years in the Trash
Last week, particularly the employees directly affected by the layoffs at Microsoft were confronted with the bitter reality. The MMORPG with the code name “Blackbird”? Canceled. Almost all who had worked on the game recently? Fired.
For context: About 300 creatives are said to have worked on the game until its cancellation. The conception phase for “Blackbird” began as early as 2018. Over the past 7 years, many millions of dollars and a lot of work, heart, nerves, and passion must have been invested in development.
Now, the work done so far is in the trash. Due to poor quality and the lack of faith in making a great game out of it? If you believe the insider reports, that is not the case. Although “Blackbird” was still 3 years away from release, many were already having great fun with the game – including Phil Spencer, head of Team Xbox.
MMORPGs and Their Big Problem
In my view, the cancellation of the Zenimax MMORPG reflects a fundamental problem of what I consider to be “the best genre in the world”:
- It takes an extremely long time to develop an MMORPG. The production costs are enormous, the risk high. Between 2005 and 2014, during the peak phase of the genre, countless attempts failed and hundreds of millions of dollars were burned.
Even if you start small and keep the team relatively small, it takes many years and a high multi-million budget for implementation. For an ambitious genre representative, you quickly reach the dimensions of the most renowned and expensive AAA productions like GTA or The Last of Us.
Due to the “Massively Multiplayer Online” orientation, however, it is nearly impossible to achieve a comparable polish to the single-player blockbusters from Naughty Dog and Rockstar. No alpha or beta can simulate a launch where millions of interested players storm the servers.
The development of Star Wars: The Old Republic is said to have cost between 150 and 200 million US dollars – that was 14 years ago…
Time is Running Out
If “Blackbird” had actually been released in 2028 as planned, it would have been in development for 10 years. That is an absurdly long period in which (not only) so much has changed in the gaming industry.
Trends come and go. New platforms and technologies establish themselves. With a bit of bad luck, a direct competitor title that wants to offer something similar might even come out before your own release.
Or, and this has also happened in this case: The company behind the game gets swallowed by an even bigger fish that suddenly dictates the future. And if the new decision-makers have plans in which a “Blackbird,” which would not appear for at least 3 more years, does not fit, the axe falls (unfortunately far too quickly and easily).
So, just in the long development time, there is so much risk that I can understand all decision-makers who in recent years have focused on other, less risky, less effort-intensive, and therefore more lucrative genres, you can find out more about that here: The Great Drought of MMORPGs and the Flight to More Lucrative Genres.
Ashes of Creation switched from Unreal Engine 4 to Unreal Engine 5 … to be able to use the current technologies despite the long development time:
Is there no other solution? Even if you want to start small, the fundamental problem remains: Development takes relatively long, is expensive, and many teams run out of money early. Since 2012, numerous Kickstarter MMOs have failed because of this.
And if they do come out, they are often just MMORPGs for a certain niche of sandbox and/or PvP fans, with old-school graphics and many compromises. Some may like that, but too many do not.
Asian MMORPGs, on the other hand, have a hard time on the Western market with their peculiarities. Peculiarities such as gender lock, real money auction houses plus Free2Play model, random elements in crafting, grind factor in endgame, mobile orientation, or in the design of models and races.
At least: Upcoming Asian MMORPGs like Chrono Odyssey, Aion 2, or ArcheAge Chronicles are placing an unusually large focus on the global launch and Western players. At least Chrono Odyssey, however, had very different problems in the closed beta.
Difficult Future for a Great Genre
While there are still some other exciting and ambitious MMORPG projects from Western studios, they all have one thing in common: A final release is still many years away. Accordingly, a lot of positive or negative can still happen with these developments.
- The MMORPG of Lord of the Rings from Amazon Games? They were still looking for the special twist of the game last year.
- The MMORPG of League of Legends? Riot announced in 2024 that they had restarted development of the game.
- The new MMORPG of EverQuest? It is supposed to represent more of a reboot for part 1 and only started development this year.
- Guild Wars 3? Was reportedly announced by publisher NCsoft likely without consulting Arenanet in March 2024. It is expected to still be very early in development.
- Project Ghost? Making progress, but still in the conception phase.
- The MMORPG of Warhammer? In February 2025, there was a report that funders NetEase may have pulled out of the project.
If we are very unlucky, none of these will come out. This possibility certainly depresses not just me, right?
Only with Ashes of Creation can genre fans likely look forward to a final release with high certainty. According to regular studio updates, Intrepid Studios are doing well, the game is making noticeable progress in alpha, and can already be tested by tens of thousands of interested players. In May 2025, they even achieved a significant milestone and welcomed more than 8,000 alpha testers simultaneously on a server.
