The pre-orders for GTA 6 have already begun, and Rockstar’s giant is already starting to make money before the actual release. A market analysis company has looked more closely at the figures regarding financial success and is now sharing its forecast.
What can be inferred from the analysis? According to an analysis by Newzoo, GTA 6 generated around $180 million in digital pre-order sales in the first weeks in the USA as well as the five largest European markets (United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain, and Germany).
Data with which they can forecast what this means for the financial success of the first week of release, which could total up to $5.2 billion.
Success through a proven series like GTA
How does the market analysis company arrive at this value? To arrive at the forecast, Newzoo looked at what the $180 million in the USA and 5 European countries indicate for a global estimate. They used the console player distribution of GTA 5, where about 69% come from these six markets. Therefore, one can estimate a global figure of approximately $260 million in the first week.
To find out what this means for the revenue in the first week of release, Newzoo uses different curves:
- the brand-new IP, for which there are no expectations before the first reviews, and orders only begin after initial opinions.
- the sequel with uncertain quality, wherein the franchise and gameplay are already known, but the execution of the new title is not really.
- the proven sequel, where every release is long awaited and eagerly anticipated, the formula is established, and it has a large fanbase.
Newzoo places GTA 6 in the third curve, the proven sequel. How these curves compare can be seen in this chart:
How can the forecast be derived from this? In the “Proven Sequel” curve, the opening week accounts for about 5.6% of the total revenue booked by the end of the release week.
With a revenue of $260 million in the first week of pre-orders, this means that GTA 6 could achieve revenue of $4.5 billion by the end of the release week. Based on the average selling price of $88, that amounts to approximately 51 million units.
With a little leeway and taking into account a potential different pre-order curve, Newzoo therefore sets a revenue between $3.25 and $5.2 billion.
What do you think of this forecast? Would you also place GTA 6 on the curve of the proven sequel? Let us know in the comments!
Whether you want to pre-order or not, you should decide in good time to benefit from the pre-order bonuses. If you still want to know how to prepare for GTA 6, you can find that out here on MeinMMO: GTA 6 will be released in just a few months: These 5 things you should definitely take care of by November
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