In EA FC 25 a strong pack is available until 7:00 PM, which you can repeat infinitely. A fan posted a theory on Reddit about how many attempts it might take before the probability of getting a Team of the Year (TOTY) could be especially high. On MeinMMO, we explain what pack this is, how you can keep opening it, and what the fan theory actually states.
What kind of pack is this? In the Squad Building Challenges (SBCs), you can currently find the 82+-x20 pack under the “Upgrades” tab. This contains 20 players, each with a minimum rating of 82. It is only available until Friday, January 31 at 7:00 PM.
How do you complete the pack? To complete the upgrade pack, you need to fulfill 2 partial SBCs:
- 83-rated team: Exchange 1 team with a minimum rating of 83 and one “Team of the Week” player (TOTW)
- you can build the team from 9×83-rated players and 2×82-rated players
- 84-rated team: Exchange 1 team with a minimum rating of 84, and 1 player needs to have a rating of 86
- you can build the team from 1×86-rated player, 6×84-rated players, and 4×82-rated players
What do you get upon completion? For the 83-rated team, you will receive a x2 players pack (1 gold player guaranteed + 1 gold/silver player, one of which is rare) and for the 84-rated team, a premium gold pack (12 gold player and club items, guaranteed 3 player items and 3 rare) valued at 7,500 coins. Upon completing both SBCs, you will receive the 82+-x20 upgrade pack as a group bonus.
You can read in this news about what you can do with the drawn players and how you might obtain TOTY players with the pack.
Your TOTY chance: Repeatable upgrades with clever exchanges
What do you do with the drawn players? Once you open the upgrade pack, you have already secured the basis for the next 82+-x20 SBC, no matter what you draw. Since you will receive players with a minimum rating of 82, you can proceed with your drawn players as follows:
- 82-rated players: exchange them directly back into the 83-rated and 84-rated team
- 83-rated players: exchange them directly back into the 83-rated and 84-rated team
- 84-rated players: exchange them back into the 84-rated team
- 85-rated players: exchange them into the 85+-x3 player SBCs for defense, midfield, or attack
- 86-rated players: exchange 1x 86-rated player into the 84-rated team
- 87+-rated players: keep them or use them to complete player SBCs
- TOTW players: exchange them directly back into the 83-rated team
Attention: You may need to buy 2 or 3 players for the next upgrade pack. However, only the TOTW players are really expensive, which you currently need to buy for a market price of at least 21,500 coins (as of January 29, 10:00 AM) if you don’t have them in your club.
To save coins and obtain additional packs cheaply, you can check out our tips for more packs for TOTY on MeinMMO.
Theory suggests that after 707 packs, the TOTY chance is 99%
This is how low the chance of obtaining a TOTY is: Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that completing the upgrade packs multiple times will lead to a TOTY. However, theoretically, you increase your chances of getting a “Team of the Year” player by continuously repeating the SBC.
Using this approach, Reddit user robkrage created a mathematical equation based on cumulative probability. Specifically for the upgrade packs, he analyzed how the chances of obtaining a TOTY increase after each pack opening.
What does the theory state? By using the pack probabilities that the fan service site Futnext offers, robkrage formulated an equation. According to this formula, you need to open about 700 packs to achieve a high probability (99%) of getting a TOTY.
On MeinMMO, we checked whether the assumed probabilities that robkrage and Futnext use for a single pack could indeed be correct. And indeed, a comparable shop pack, the “Deluxe Live Bonus Pack,” which contains 30 rare 82+-rated gold players, offers similar chances. According to EA, the specified TOTY probabilities for this pack are:
- 3.4% for a TOTY honorable mention
- 1.2% for a TOTY icon
- less than 1% for a TOTY
Attention: While the statements are mathematically understandable, you should be aware that it can happen that even with larger quantities of packs, you might not get a TOTY or that you might get a TOTY with a smaller number of packs. The author robkrage also clarifies this in a comment under his thread:
- “Assuming person 1 has 10 82×20 upgrade packs and person 2 has 50 82×20 upgrade packs. Which person has a greater chance of getting a TOTY? The answer is person 2, but that doesn’t mean there couldn’t be a scenario where person 1 packs three TOTYs and person 2 packs none. In the end, it all comes down to luck. What I have shown is only the probability after x packs.” (via reddit)
All available TOTYs and their upgrades can be found here: 45 TOTYs now available in packs – All players, upgrades, and leaks
With a bit of patience and a fair amount of luck, you might still greet a TOTY card in your ranks by the end of “Team of the Year” in FC 25. Or you can choose the easier path and simply create your own TOTY player: In EA FC 25, you can secure a TOTY EVO Star for free – Here’s how it works
