Those who trade diligently are sure to have some Lucky Pokémon. But how rare are these monsters in Pokémon GO?
What are Lucky Pokémon? These special Pokémon appear during trades. If you trade two Pokémon, they might become a Lucky Pokémon (in English “Lucky”). Leveling up these Pokémon only costs half the Stardust and the IV of the Pokémon is at least 80%.
So far, there has been no information on how rare these Pokémon are. Now analysts from TheSilphRoad have analyzed over 9000 trades and their resulting Lucky Pokémon.
Your Lucky Pokémon are that rare
This is how the probability differs: Important for the probability is the age of the traded Pokémon. Various parameters come into play. The chance of getting a Lucky Pokémon varies depending on whether the Pokémon:
- is one year old or younger
- is one year old or older
- is two years old or older
- comes from July and August 2016
This is proven: The older a Pokémon is, the more likely this monster will be a Lucky when traded. So if you have a Pokémon that was caught exactly 365 days ago, it is more likely to become a Lucky Pokémon the next day.
These are the probabilities of Lucky Pokémon
| Age of the Pokémon | Probability of a Lucky |
| 1 year or younger | 5.77% |
| 1 year or older | 9.94% |
| 2 years or older | 24% |
| July and August 2016 | 70.97% |
What do these probabilities tell us? If you have Pokémon from the early months of Pokémon GO, you should definitely keep and trade them. The chance of getting a Lucky Pokémon is almost 3 out of 4.
It suffices if only one of the two players trades such an old Pokémon. The other player can trade a current Pokémon. When trading, both Pokémon will always become a Lucky.
How to increase your chances of getting a Lucky
If you want to ensure you get a Lucky Pokémon, both trading partners should trade an old Pokémon. The chance increases even more if both trainers send an older Pokémon for trading.
| Age of the Pokémon | Probability of a Lucky |
| 1 year or older against 1 year or older | 14.89% |
| 2 years or older against 1 year or older | 41.67% |
| July/August 2016 or older against 1 year or older | 88.89% |
Note this: The data in this analysis is based only on a few trades. It is quite difficult to find so many old Pokémon. Nevertheless, they offer a rough picture of the probabilities.
There are also guaranteed Lucky Pokémon
This is how to get guaranteed Lucky Pokémon: If you haven’t traded very much yet, then you have the chance for guaranteed Lucky Pokémon. One of the two trainers must not own 10 Lucky Pokémon yet.
Now, if you trade a Pokémon from July or August 2016, it will definitely become a Lucky. It doesn’t matter which trainer trades the old Pokémon. So if you don’t have 10 Lucky Pokémon yet, you should secure the guaranteed chance.
Another important aspect in Pokémon GO are the evolution items:
