In Pokémon GO, the Lunar New Year event is currently taking place, giving you a higher chance for a lucky trade. The trainers from The Silph Road and the reddit community have been trading diligently and are now sharing their chances of obtaining a Lucky Pokémon.
What is it about? Currently, Pokémon GO is celebrating the Lunar New Year, which focuses on the theme of friendship in addition to capturing. For this reason, trainers in the game can look forward to an increased likelihood of lucky trades.
But what is this rate actually? The community around The Silph Road wants to know more precisely and is therefore trying to determine the current probability. We have looked at what they have already discovered and will show you reports from other trainers.
How long does the event last? The Lunar New Year event runs in Pokémon GO from February 1, 2022, at 10:00 AM local time until February 7, 2022, at 8:00 PM local time.
The Silph Road is a global community where trainers, dataminers, and Pokémon GO enthusiasts have come together to analyze the game in detail. They document their experiences and make these results publicly available to other trainers.
Your current chances of a lucky trade
As the community around The Silph Road mentioned in their post on their homepage, they were able to collect initial data on the current lucky trade rate during the Lunar New Year event (via thesilphroad.com). As of February 2, 2022, at 04:34 AM (CET), a total of 684 trades had already been conducted.
Of these, 68 turned out to be lucky trades, corresponding to a current rate of 9.94%. This means that about every 10th trade yields a Lucky Pokémon. Only actions where two “new” monsters were traded, meaning Pokémon that are less than 1 year old, were considered, as the chance can change based on the age of one of the Pokémon.
Is this rate good? Yes, when comparing the regular probabilities for a lucky trade with those calculated on the occasion of the Lunar New Year by The Silph Road, it is found that these are almost twice as high. Normally, your chance of getting a Lucky Pokémon is just under 5%, which corresponds to about every 20th trade.
By the way: Have you actually discovered our survey on the Community Day Classics yet? There, we want to know how often the “Community Day Classic” events should take place in the future. So feel free to participate:
These experiences have trainers made while trading
Similar experiences to The Silph Road are also being reported by other trainers who have also published their rates on reddit. However, they noted that especially at the beginning of trading, the chances for a lucky trade were higher than towards the end. You can find the following comments there (via reddit.com):
- xudong76: “For me, it was 10% today. 7 Lucky from the first 30 [trades], then 3 from the last 70. LOL.”
- hippie22222: “It’s the same for me. The first few times I was lucky, then it was bad.”
The reddit user Own_Fortune_6940 hopes for the adjusted lucky trade chances and the second daily special trade for an opportunity to obtain a Shlundo, a shiny Lucky Pokémon with an IV of 100%. He explains his assumption in the comments as follows (via reddit.com):
“If you make two shiny trades per day during the entire event, that’s 16 chances, with a probability of 10% of getting a Lucky Pokémon, and if you’re lucky, there’s a 1/64 chance that it’s a Shlundo. If I calculated correctly, the chance of getting a Shlundo during the event is about (16 x 1/10 x 1/64), so 1/40.”
Even though the chances of getting a Shlundo are still relatively low, it is still worthwhile to take advantage of the increased lucky trade probability during the Lunar New Year. So hurry up if you want to secure a Lucky Pokémon or two. When the next opportunity will be is still unknown.
How do you perceive the current lucky trade chances? Have you managed to get so many Lucky Pokémon directly, or do you prefer to hope for a Shlundo, like Own_Fortune_6940? Feel free to share your opinion with us here on MeinMMO in the comments and exchange ideas with other trainers.
Trading also plays an important role for me. Therefore, I will explain to you why I trade 100 Pokémon a day and why it can be worthwhile for you too.
