The return of Rayquaza in Pokémon GO is being celebrated, as for the first time you can catch the shiny version. How likely is it and how many raids do you have to do?
This is the calculation: A clever player on Reddit calculated the probabilities for a Shiny Rayquaza. So how many raids do you need to do to have a 99% chance of finding a Shiny?
The chances of getting a Shiny are good. Even if you only use the free passes, you will likely get a Shiny.
How likely is Shiny Rayquaza
What is the rate? The probability for a Shiny Rayquaza is estimated to be 1 in 20. This has been the case for every Legendary outside of a Raid Day.
You can now easily apply this rate and compare it with the number of raids. The following probabilities will emerge:
| Number of Raids | Probability of a Shiny |
| 1 | 5% |
| 2 | 10% |
| 20 | 64% |
| 33 | 82% |
| 60 | 95% |
| 90 | 99% |
What do these numbers tell us? Rayquaza will be available for exactly 33 days. So if you make 3 raids each day, you should likely have a Shiny.
Even if you only use the free passes, meaning you don’t spend any money, you have an 82% chance of getting a Shiny. So the chances are good to snag the coveted Shiny.
So many coins you need to invest: To have a 99% probability of getting a Shiny, you need to invest some coins in Raid Passes. If you buy the current offer box with 14 passes, you will need to buy it 4 times to have enough passes for the 90 raids.
This would cost 5920 coins. This is approximately 50 euros. So you would need to invest a considerable amount to be quite sure of getting a Shiny.
What you still need to consider: This is purely probability calculation. There is no guarantee that you will get a Shiny after 100 raids. The chances are just very high.
Is raiding worth it even without a Shiny? Even if you already have 3 Shinys, it is always worth doing Rayquaza raids. It is the best dragon attacker in the game and is versatile.
It is definitely worth having a full team of Rayquaza. In later raids, it will be useful, as Rayquaza is also a good counter against itself.
The dragon Pokémon can also be easily defeated in duo. We show you how to do it:
