What’s the current state of World of Warcraft? Streamer Bellular reveals details on player numbers – which look grim. But are they really?
The player numbers of World of Warcraft have been a big unknown for years. Official figures have not been released by Blizzard for a long time, so one can only speculate about the exact number of subscribers. However, savvy community sites have found other ways to at least get a rough feel for the state of the game through some other statistics.
The streamer and analyst Bellular refers to the numbers from the endgame content and explains why they look grim but are actually much better.
Who is Bellular? Bellular is a long-time streamer and YouTuber known for various reasons. Occasionally, he compiles a lot of information to create exciting lore theories or to take a look into the future of World of Warcraft. His content also includes discussing the development of MMORPGs – game mechanics, crises in companies, or player numbers. His analyses are usually quite extensive and based on multiple sources.
What did Bellular explain? In his latest video, Bellular compares some numbers related to the endgame activities of the current patch in World of Warcraft with different numbers from past patches and expansions.
One value here is the boss kills achieved after a certain time in the latest raid. This allows us to see how many groups managed to defeat the final boss “The Jailer” in the first four weeks after the raid opened and compare that with the final boss kills from the last raid, Sanctum of Domination. Interestingly, there is also a direct comparison with the numbers of players who have at least killed the first boss – this provides a direct comparison. For the first 4 weeks in normal mode, this means:
- In the Sanctum of Domination, 18,675 groups killed the 1st boss and 11,474 of them the last – a whopping 61.44%.
- In the Mausoleum of the First, 12,382 groups killed the 1st boss, but only 3,277 killed the final boss – a mere 26%.
Numbers look bad, but are actually quite okay
Even though the numbers seem grim at first glance, Bellular puts that into perspective and names a whole series of reasons why the state of World of Warcraft is not so bad.
One of the most important reasons is that the comparison of the final boss kills is not entirely fair. This is partly because the last 3 bosses of the Mausoleum of the First were only accessible with a week’s delay, but also because the raid essentially had “two final bosses” – as Anduin Wrynn, the 8th boss of the Mausoleum, was as complex and difficult as final bosses usually are.
The second fact, especially relevant in heroic mode, is the power gain within the patch. Players only gain really strong bonuses gradually, such as double Legendaries or the 2-piece and 4-piece bonuses of their tier sets. These are fundamentally much more powerful than the Domination Shards and have a greater impact on progress.
Another argument is that the Jailer does not drop a tier set item – and is thus simply uninteresting for many players. The tier set is among the best rewards available in the current patch, and the fact that the final boss cannot drop this reward makes him significantly less attractive. For comparison: Sylvanas could drop a legendary bow for hunters and very interesting daggers for rogues.
The Jailer is also harder on heroic difficulty than the first bosses on mythic difficulty. Those wanting better loot preferred to try to defeat the first few bosses on mythic difficulty with their guild rather than banging their heads against the Jailer on heroic difficulty.
A final point is that the raid was simply too difficult at the beginning. Few other raids have been nerfed as often in such a short time as the Mausoleum of the First. Almost all bosses received minor or major nerfs. Some bosses, like the previously mentioned Anduin, were even nerfed 5 times in a row.
Good numbers compared to Battle for Azeroth
All these factors, weighted differently, lead Bellular to find the direct comparison between the Jailer and other final bosses unjustified. He believes it is better to compare the numbers with another boss – Anduin Wrynn. While this is also not 100% accurate, it is closer to the truth. Bellular compares the raid results from week 3 after release and pretends that Anduin was the final boss.
After 3 weeks, 9,447 groups had killed Sylvanas in the Sanctum of Domination and 8,851 groups had killed Anduin Wrynn in the Mausoleum of the First – both on normal difficulty. This is a difference of 6.31% and according to Bellular, makes it much clearer how many active players are still around in the endgame.
These values are also quite solid compared to previous expansions. In the patches of “Battle for Azeroth”, the respective final bosses were killed similarly often after week 3. Jaina in the Battle of Dazar’alor fell 9,692 times, Queen Azshara in the Eternal Palace 8,282 times, and N’Zoth in Ny’alotha only 4,064 times.
When applying similar standards to the heroic mode, the numbers are actually quite positive. In the first 3 weeks, only 1,195 groups defeated Sylvanas in heroic mode, while there were a whopping 2,567 groups for Anduin at the same time – an increase of nearly 115%.
For Bellular, it is clear: Patch 9.2 has done quite a few things right. While it is not perfect, it has helped slow down player loss and significantly mitigate the downward spiral of World of Warcraft – at least concerning the endgame.
That player numbers decrease over the course of an expansion is completely normal. The particularly large “drop” between Patch 9.0 and Patch 9.1 was catastrophic according to Bellular, but Patch 9.2 has done a good job of keeping existing players in World of Warcraft and he himself enjoys the patch. It is a good step in the right direction, giving hope for the next expansion.
Do you find Bellular’s analysis understandable and logical? Or is it just “smoke and mirrors” and World of Warcraft is really in bad shape right now?
