At first, they had no luck, and then bad luck came along. Like few other games, WildStar launched last summer with high hopes, many promises, a motivated development team, and a lot of “positive energy.” And like few other games, this house of cards was blown over faster than anyone had time to catch their breath.
What will become of the once hopeful MMO in the future? Does the game even have a future? We dare to take a look at the coming year and spin the events a little further…
Current Situation: Empty, Emptier, Megaserver
It was supposed to be the big rescue operation: After many fans dropped the game and fled back to World of Warcraft or the newly released Archeage in droves, the initially well-visited servers were practically deserted. When someone was online, they were mostly wandering around their own property. Thayd and Illium, the two main hubs of the world, resembled ghost towns.
Megaservers were needed to retain the remaining players and quickly give them the feeling of a populated world again.
Soon after, the major content patch arrived, which dealt with almost all the bugs in the game. But these measures could not really save WildStar from the seemingly endless downward spiral it was in (and still is today).
While you now encounter other players more regularly in the cities, and they can also cross your path in the rest of the game world, they often speak English or French. What may not be a problem for many has become yet another disqualifier for others, as they did not want to learn to understand the “gibberish” of other languages just to play a game. It’s quite unfortunate, as it could have been the big hit in the MMO market in 2014.
Question: Where is room for WildStar?
Unfortunately, WildStar has not managed to retain the player masses long-term, and now that the attention has waned, it’s unlikely to return quickly. For the developers, the only opportunity left is to quickly decide on a niche that WildStar wants to occupy. There are good approaches here, as the game possesses perhaps the most extensive housing system and a dynamic combat system that shows its full potential, especially in heated PvP battles.
The crucial question is whether the developers can fulfill one of two scenarios: Either continue to develop the highly praised aspects and thereby give the game a niche position, or become mass-compatible and thus attract a few players from all types of player communities. This could succeed – but it could also fail horribly. The latest plans from Carbine indicate that they want to further expand the game and make it attractive to as many types of players as possible. Some thoughts follow on this.
Worst Case: Free2Play, Total Collapse, Graveyard
In the worst case, the transition to a purely Free2Play model would take place. This step would definitely generate new players, as what is free always attracts some adventurous souls. At the same time, it would alienate some members of the greatly reduced core player base, as the switch to a free model is viewed in many minds as the first nail in the coffin.
At the same time, this of course entails the introduction of an item shop, and whether players are willing to spend money for it is a whole different matter. If they are not willing, there will be a need to quickly work on the attractiveness of this shop, which either leads to “free” players being heavily restricted in their fun or the purchase options becoming so powerful that the “pay2win” accusation follows immediately.
But regardless of which of the two options would occur, the planet Nexus would likely be able to stay afloat for only one or two more years – as the game’s highlights (housing, combat system) are increasingly being copied and transferred to other worlds. It would then only be a matter of time before this player base moves on, giving its once hopeful candidate a place in the grand cemetery of “failed WoW killers.”
Best Case: Add-on, Attention, MMO Heaven
But let’s not condemn everything when there’s still hope. WildStar is still a fantastic game and just needs to generate enough attention. This will not be accomplished by a few “check it out” weekends, but requires some big splash as a hook.
What always attracts attention, for example, is the release of a new add-on. Given Carbine’s current economic situation, this is, of course, utopian, but it would be a legitimate reason for many “leavers” to return to the planet Nexus, which has become significantly more bug-free and enjoyable than it was at launch.
Especially in the field of e-sports, WildStar has many opportunities to position itself alongside housing as another unique selling point. The gameplay is clearly more tactical, frenetic, and skill-based due to the telegraph system compared to some competitors (even though that will attract flames). A spark that generates attention could be the great salvation – but who is willing to risk so much again?
What is likely to happen: Little.
Of course, the most likely scenario is that neither of the two scenarios mentioned above will occur in this form, and as (almost always) WildStar will pursue a middle path. Even the current investor forecasts suggest no increase this year; instead, the revenues earned will continue to decline. This is not an official statement from NCSoft, but it is nevertheless an indication. It already suggests that either the game will be given another year of “maturation time” or it has already been written off and the studio will be given freer rein to either “get the cart out of the dirt” or drive it straight into the wall.
Another quite plausible option is a hybrid model based on SWTOR or Tera – here you can pay if you want “more” from the game, but the basic package is accessible to everyone. Restrictions in terms of PvP, instances, housing, and character slots could be conceivable, which one could bypass as a subscriber. That such a model can succeed has been shown in the past repeatedly – but is it also right for Carbine?
However, it’s also possible that they have come to terms with where WildStar is currently and simply let it continue under the existing model, seemingly believing that the remaining players will stay loyal and continue to stick around.
And that is also the solution that seems most likely to me, causing the least cost: We keep everything as it is and continue as before. This may not produce significant leaps, but a downward spiral must eventually hit bottom – and then it can only move in one direction. Upwards. Perhaps not as high as once promised, but at least to a level comparable with other games.
Or how do you see it?
