Since around 2016, the “Battle Royale” trend has dominated the gaming world. Games like H1Z1, PUBG, Fortnite and now Apex Legends are taking over the world. But what comes next? Our author Schuhmann has an idea that is radically different from the current trend.
These have been the latest gaming trends: For a few years now, there has always been some genre that is in “trend.” There is a flagship game in the genre, and the rest want to emulate it, generating new games that work similarly to the market leader:
- We had the era of MMORPGs, where everyone wanted to create the next WoW – until around 2011
- We had the time of MOBAs, where everyone wanted a piece of the LoL pie – until around 2014
- Then suddenly survival games became popular, with games like ARK Survival Evolved – that was big in 2015. We only recently experienced laggards like Fallout 76 .
- At the same time, the era of team shooters began; suddenly people thought Overwatch would dominate the market – that came in 2016. But all those who followed the trend crashed horribly.
- And after that, the battle royale games really took off. This phase has lasted for about two and a half to three years now.
4 Games in the Battle Royale Trend
This is how the “Battle Royale Trend” went: The “Battle Royale” mode is actually an old concept and appeared as a mod early on, but it was long relegated to a modding corner away from the gaming mainstream.
- Things really kicked off in February 2016 with “H1Z1/King of the Kill”, which caused a stir
- 2017 was the big year for PUBG, which broke all records
- In 2018, Fortnite took over the world and even brought gaming into the mainstream more strongly. Battle Royale moved out of the PC corner and came to consoles and mobile.
- And in 2019, it became clear that Apex Legends could play a big role.
What characterizes all trends? When we look at the trending games of the last 10 years, there are some commonalities:
- The games are “Online”
- They are “Multiplayer games”
- They are regularly developed and expanded – they are all live service games
- They are games with “PvP in focus” – at least for the last 8 years
- The role of streamers and influencers has become more important each year. They determine which game is trending. What the streamers play, the masses play. Every “trend game” has also been big on Twitch for the last 5 years.
More Simulation, Less Action
What will be the next trend? In recent years, trend games have become more transient. While you had “calmer phases” in Overwatch and LoL that led to a conflict, anything can happen in Battle Royale. Chance and “instant action” are becoming more important.
Additionally, new games are more focused on solo or smaller groups – team play is not as essential in many modes of Fortnite or PUBG as it is in LoL or Overwatch.
Interestingly, there was virtually no way to predict a trend beforehand – they always come as a surprise.
Trends games are not likely to become faster than Fortnite and Apex Legends. There are probably limits reached.
Therefore, I could imagine a drastic reversal occurring.
My idea for the next “gaming trend” is slower, more complex games that offer players much more freedom and variety: These games would also allow streamers to showcase their personalities more prominently.
Additionally, the new games may not focus on small group fights but rather on large battles and complex situations.
So it would lean towards “online simulation.” This direction has already been taken by survival games, which have worked well on Twitch, or titles like “Sea of Thieves.”.
In Sea of Thieves, a single streamer caused a massive surge in December 2018 and January 2019. Everyone was longing for variety from Battle Royale, and it seemed a new trend was emerging. However, this new trend was harshly interrupted by “Apex Legends”.
These could be the next trend games: If you look at what is in development, two titles stand out:
Both titles are currently not fully developed and playable. But both offer significant potential.
Both titles could represent some kind of “second space” next to the real world, where diverse situations arise and conflicts escalate.
We know how fascinating the stories about player conflicts in EVE Online are. If a game managed to present something like this vividly and engagingly, it would surely entertain and excite players and spectators.
Games run on Amazon engine, especially designed for Twitch
This speaks for the thesis: The interesting thing is that “New World” is backed by Amazon. They own the platform “Twitch” – so one can assume that New World will be extremely tailored to Twitch.
Also, “Star Citizen” is being developed with the same engine as New World: The Lumberyard engine, a modified version of the CryEngine.
This engine is specially designed to work excellently with Twitch and to utilize Amazon’s server technology to simulate large worlds.
These games are already preparing to operate on Twitch. The question is ultimately whether the big streamers will set this trend when everyone eventually gets fed up with Battle Royale.
What speaks against the trend? The titles are only for PC – the latest trend games also included consoles more strongly and focused on enormous accessibility.
Furthermore, it would be a really drastic reversal of gaming and viewing habits.
Both New World and Star Citizen are also still far from completion.
So the new trend will not come too quickly. It will probably take at least another two years.
Perhaps by 2021, something entirely different will have emerged. Because trends have always appeared surprisingly.
In 2016, hardly anyone could have imagined that the hype around Overwatch would fizzle out so quickly and be replaced by other titles.
