The new report from industry expert Joost van Dreunen paints a grim picture of the future for publisher Ubisoft. Valuable franchises like Rainbow Six and Assassin’s Creed could soon be up for sale.
What does the expert’s analysis reveal? The well-known industry insider, author, and professor Joost van Dreunen has analyzed the current situation of Ubisoft in his latest article on superjoost.substack.com. His observations:
- The rapid decline of XDefiant reflects “deeper structural and cultural issues within the company.”
- According to internal sources, Ubisoft’s leadership is said to suppress critical analyses. Decision-makers prioritize the development of new content over solving fundamental problems.
- The leadership has not recognized how important it is to treat players not just as consumers of content but as active participants who can make a meaningful contribution within their community.
- XDefiant is just one link in a long chain of missteps. “The strategic implications for Ubisoft are significant.” The stock price has fallen from $28.19 to $12.30 year-over-year.
- The delayed Assassin’s Creed Shadows must be a success, yet it competes directly with Ghost of Yotei, the sequel to the hugely successful open-world adventure Ghost of Tsushima.
Assassin’s Creed Shadows is set to release in February 2025 – here is one of the trailers:
What conclusions does the expert draw from this? Due to the currently very low stock price, Ubisoft is an extraordinarily attractive takeover target. The Chinese company Tencent, which owns 49.9 percent of Guillemot Bros, the largest shareholder of Ubisoft, has been named as the most likely candidate for years.
However, Joost van Dreunen also believes that the Ubisoft executives (read: the Guillemot family) want to prevent this takeover by all means. Therefore, he estimates that there will be a dismantling and privatization of Ubisoft in the coming year.
This would also involve selling off the most valuable assets – including brands like Assassin’s Creed, Rainbow Six, and Far Cry. Individually, they would generate significantly more revenue than as a total package.
“Maybe a master plan by the Guillemot family”
How does the community assess the report? On Reddit, Joost van Dreunen’s analysis is hotly debated – the post from last night already has more than 11,670 upvotes and over 1,080 comments.
- llgabomination also sees no future for Ubisoft (via Reddit): “I must also be an industry expert because Ubisoft is definitely about to implode.”
- CryMoreFanboys would welcome privatization (via Reddit): “Valve has been a private company throughout its existence, which does not mean Ubisoft will one day become like Valve, but it simply means that no shareholders will exert pressure on them to make increasing profits by monetizing their games further.”
- LolliPopinskiLolliPopinski hopes for Reddit: “I hope they sell the Tom Clancy stuff, I want a proper Rainbow 6 and Ghost Recon that are more in line with the originals.”
- montrealien criticizes the report on Reddit: “This analysis only highlights the negative aspects, while overlooking the overall strengths of Ubisoft and the industry context.”
- AnotherGerolf speculates on Reddit: “Maybe it’s a master plan by the Guillemot family to bring the stock price down to bargain levels and thus take Ubisoft back into private hands.”
Must Ubisoft sell Rainbow Six? Many players would love to see a new installment in the series.
How does MeinMMO editor Karsten Scholz assess the situation at Ubisoft? It has been several years since the most charming appearances at the biggest industry fair in the world (I mean the E3, rest in peace!) always came from Ubisoft.
On the one hand, because the presentations on stage were wonderfully human, on the other hand, because Ubisoft at that time presented a good mix of small gems and exciting AAA productions. No one was talking about the now-infamous Ubisoft formula for open worlds back then.
Since then, however, much has changed:
- Blockbuster games like Watch Dogs and The Division unleashed downgrading accusations upon release because the final versions were less attractive than the preview versions shown beforehand.
- Ubisoft focused on large worlds that seemed increasingly formulaic with each Assassin’s Creed, Far Cry, or Watch Dogs.
- Instead of small gems, there were more and more games with “Games as a Service” monetization.
- Since 2020, Ubisoft has repeatedly faced serious allegations regarding sexual misconduct by several high-ranking Ubisoft employees or poor working conditions (via kotaku.com).
- During the hype around crypto games, Ubisoft was right at the forefront and unleashed shitstorms on assembly lines (including for the Quartz platform – via kotaku.com – or because they wanted to convince employees of the new strategy with crypto gifts – via kotaku.com).
- Many games at Ubisoft are going through development hell – like Skull & Bones or Beyond Good & Evil 2. Of those that are released, many fall short of expectations.
- Ubisoft has had several financial quarters with (record) losses (via ubisoft.com). The stock price has plunged even deeper. Already at the beginning of 2023, an emergency meeting was held, during which several projects were put on hold and a drastic cost-cutting course was decided upon.
All this combined makes it no surprise that there have been rumors of a takeover of Ubisoft for years (for example, in April 2023, via kotaku.com). As early as 2016, the Guillemot family aggressively fought against a takeover attempt by Vivendi (via polygon.com). Almost ten years later, however, the sheer number of locations and employees (around 20,000) may scare potential buyers away.
But how long can Ubisoft’s difficult zigzag course continue to go well? At Embracer, a last-minute failed billion-dollar deal was enough to cause the entire house of cards to collapse. My thesis: The success or failure of Assassin’s Creed Shadows will largely determine how things proceed at Ubisoft in 2025.
By the way, Ubisoft recently released a comparatively small but fine platformer, Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown, which unfortunately was not successful enough. The team was therefore disbanded – according to a lead from Baldur’s Gate 3, this is due to the subscription
