The analysts at Piper Jaffray have released their estimates regarding the likely commercial success of major games in 2018 and 2019. It involves questions like: How many subscriptions does WoW still have? Will Red Dead Redemption 2 outperform Call of Duty and Battlefield V? How strong will Destiny 2 “Forsaken” and Anthem be?
Where do these numbers come from? Analysts Michael J. Olson and Yung Kim work for Piper Jaffray. This is an American investment bank. They have now presented their estimates for the following companies:
- Electronic Arts
- Take Two
- Activision
Along with Ubisoft and the platform owners (Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo), these are the largest publishers for games in the West.
What are the data actually for? These estimates are partly tied to stock prices – information that investors use to decide which company they want to invest their money in.
What do the data mean for us? For us gamers, these are not investment tips, but interesting discussion topics. They show how professionals assess the situation. And they are paid to be right with their estimates. However, they are certainly not infallible.
The analysts always present a “bad case” and a “good case,” i.e., an upper and lower limit for their estimate. The papers state the “units sold” in millions. For Call of Duty, it is believed that between 19.4 and 23.7 million units will be sold.
How many are still buying Destiny 2 “Forsaken?” The large expansion Forsaken in the fall is expected to be purchased by between 7.2 and 8.8 million Destiny 2 players. That would be quite substantial.
However, other analysts thought before the launch of Destiny 1 that 20 million units would be sold. The exact numbers for Destiny 1 and Destiny 2 are unknown.
Activision was very satisfied with the sales of Destiny 2, but then criticism set in after the initial months.
How successful will Anthem be? The shooter from BioWare, which is set to launch in 2019, is not expected by analysts to achieve great sales success. With between 4.1 and 5 million units sold, Anthem would be more of a second-tier game for EA. Here further monetization as a games-as-a-service would be crucial.
By the way, experts consider FIFA 19 to be a safe hit.
How many subscription players does WoW still have?
How many subscriptions does WoW still have? The MMORPG classic World of Warcraft is estimated to have between 5.4 and 6.6 million subscribers. However, it is noted that this could increase if the expansion does well.
These subscription numbers put WoW far from the record numbers during the Lich King era, but analysts believe that World of Warcraft has remained stable since 2015. At that time, Activision Blizzard stopped publicly disclosing subscriber numbers and was around 5.5 million.
With these subscription numbers, WoW would still be a cash cow for Activision Blizzard. The WoW subscriptions alone would generate higher revenues than the massive Overwatch. In Hearthstone, analysts also see an incredibly lucrative project.
For “Battle for Azeroth,” analysts predict 3.6 to 4.4 million units sold.
Who will win in 2018? According to the analysts, both Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII and Battlefield V will sell significantly more units than Red Dead Redemption 2. This is mainly because Red Dead Redemption 2 will not be released for PC; Call of Duty and Battlefield V will be.
Whether the analysts are right with all their assessments or if there will be any movement remains to be seen in the coming months. Hard to believe with the current heatwave, but in just a few weeks, the Christmas business for the big companies, the most important time of the year, will start.
