How is the fantasy MMO The Elder Scrolls Online developing in 2015. What is the best case scenario, what is the worst case scenario, and what is the likely outcome? When will the port for the consoles Playstation 4 and Xbox One be released? Will TESO be a hit again or will it flop permanently?
The Situation
TESO launched relatively well in April 2014 with high marketing efforts. Then, the unconventional design and numerous bugs took their toll. A relatively large part of the player base disappeared. Consequently, the console release for Playstation 4 and Xbox One was delayed until the end of the year, Zenimax has since postponed it to 2015.
Furthermore, they initiated a massive overhaul of the game. The developers consistently provided new zones and game content. Major game-changing features and a revision of the core gameplay mechanics are expected to come in 2015. They require a longer development and maturation period.
Currently, they are preparing update 6 and introducing two new key features: The Champion System and the Justice System. If this succeeds, they want to tackle the consoles. This is the crucial step that will determine whether TESO will rise or fall.
The Crucial Question
Will they succeed in porting to the consoles? Will players find a polished game that meets the expectations of Elder Scrolls fans?
The Worst Case
In the worst case, TESO appears on consoles and is not yet ready for it. The game is plagued by bugs and teething problems. The new systems, such as the Justice System, do not give fans the Skyrim feeling that many crave. They feel unfinished and unsatisfactory. The monthly fees also deter many console players.
Moreover, at the chosen release time, there is strong competition from games like Witcher 3, from which TESO cannot emerge.
No hype is generated. The game’s relaunch fails. The Elder Scrolls Online is overshadowed by the scent of failure. Negative word of mouth does the rest. The Elder Scrolls Online is dismissed as “an unworthy MMO offshoot of the name” by core fans.
TESO remains a niche occurrence, playing only the triangle in the concert of the big. Zenimax saves resources, and personnel are reduced. The current steady stream of content flows more slowly. The game will face the next few years as an somewhat underestimated “cult piece” focused on story and world. A fate it shares with The Secret World.
The Best Case
TESO generates a huge hype with a model launch in a calm and favorable large-scale weather situation. Elaborate cinematics create the impression: A completely new game is approaching the players.
The game appears fresh, polished, and contemporary. The Imperial City revitalizes PvP, the Justice System evokes Skyrim feelings, and the Champion System makes endgame uniquely interesting, as the heroes differ from one another. The quests are bug-free and run smoothly. The loot system motivates, and players always have something to do. The world of Tamriel feels lively and fresh with all the new players and the new NPC AI.
New guilds and communities are emerging. The gaming press takes notice of the game and reports as intensively as in March and April 2014 – this time however with a more positive tone. The symbiosis between a lively, rich world and motivating, almost addictive MMO mechanics succeeds. The evolution of the heroes feels organic and right. Especially the deep quests, the great atmosphere, and the exciting and balanced PvP in Cyrodiil are praised.
Streamers recognize the potential and thoroughly cover the “new” TESO. The PC version also benefits from the new attention and attracts fresh players with favorable conditions.
The Elder Scrolls Online experiences a second spring.
What is likely to happen?
Everything will take significantly longer than players currently think.
So far, TESO has always taken a relatively long time to return to normal after an update that brought fresh content. There have often been significant technical difficulties even after small updates over weeks and months. This is something that cannot be afforded in a port to Xbox One and Playstation 4.
It will not be the case that you can immediately take off as soon as the last piece of content is laid.
Moreover, it is still unclear when the last stone, the last piece, will come. Update 6 is supposed to be played on the test server in January and will lay the first foundation of the Justice System. Perhaps the “final” piece of this system will not be ready until March or May. After all, the renovations are massive.
If you consider what else is planned before it can go to consoles, and that one certainly wants to wait for a good date, the release on consoles could happen much later than expected.
Perhaps only in the second half of 2015. And surely they do not want to get into the summer months, so perhaps only in September 2015.
The later the game comes, the higher the likelihood that it can become a success. Especially since players are increasingly forgetting the rough PC launch. However, Zenimax must ensure that it does not interfere with any potential The Elder Scrolls VI.
What they plan with TESO makes sense. Zenimax has invested a tremendous amount of work to develop The Elder Scrolls Online reasonably and let it mature in 2014. The plans they have for 2015 are surely the most profound and interesting of all MMOs. And all this has thus far been received by PC players without additional costs; no expansions have been sold.
Now it is extremely important that TESO comes to consoles polished and refined to keep players engaged longer. Console players will not forgive any teething problems. All this work must now bear fruit.
If a date for the consoles is announced in the coming weeks, we will know more. The later the date, the higher the chances of success. However, a late date in 2015 will initially frustrate many.
The Elder Scrolls Online has a second chance for a major restart. But that will also be the last one.
