The Egg Event in Pokémon GO is in full swing and the chance of good eggs is increased. However, players complain that 10 km eggs are too rare. So what is the probability of getting these eggs?
What happened? The Adventure Sync Hatchathon in Pokémon GO has been active for several days now, and when reading the notification, it states that 5 and 10 km eggs come up more frequently from PokéStops. However, players are complaining that 10 km eggs are hardly found and they only receive 5 km eggs.
But is that true? What is the probability of getting the special eggs during the event? To find out how often these eggs actually occur, TheSilphRoad started a poll on Reddit.
Probability of 2 km, 5 km, and 10 km Eggs in Pokémon GO
How are the numbers calculated? The analysts from TheSilphRoad compiled data from 647 eggs, which led to a result.
These are samples and not official figures from Niantic. Nevertheless, this evaluation gives a rough overview on which one can orient oneself.
The probability of the eggs is: In the analysis, the experts examined the probability of 2 km, 5 km, and 10 km eggs from PokéStops during the egg event. The following result was achieved:
- 2 km eggs: 9-13 %
- 5 km eggs: 70-76 %
- 10 km eggs: 14-20 %
What do the numbers tell us? Not surprisingly, the 5 km eggs are the most common. Almost three-quarters of all eggs obtained from PokéStops are 5 km eggs. The 10 km eggs remain rare.
Why is this special? Niantic promised in their announcement that they wanted to increase the chance of 5 and 10 km eggs. However, trainers are currently mainly finding the 5 km eggs. Many feel that the increase in 10 km eggs is not noticeable.
TheSilphRoad compared these probabilities with those of the Christmas event and found that the chance of 10 km eggs was higher there. While there approximately 20% of all eggs were 10 km eggs, the probability is now lower.
What do the players say?
This is how Reddit reacts: On Reddit, the user “Soapdropper” asked: “So did Niantic lie with the 10 km eggs?” and received much support. Particularly disappointed were players who had relied on the eggs from PokéStops.
The user “Jakyvir1718” writes: “Largest and most diverse egg pool we’ve ever had? More like an overcrowded egg pool, with Pokémon that are also commonly found in the wild!”
However, there is also another theory regarding Niantic’s statement. “Deft4691” explains on Reddit: “They said, ‘More likely to get 5 km and 10 km eggs.’ The combined chance of getting a 5 km egg/10 km egg compared to a 2 km egg increased (~70% to ~90%). Misleading? Yes. Technically true? Also yes.”
This is the problem with 5 km eggs: Many players find the 5 km eggs useless. The pool of Pokémon is huge, and the quality leaves something to be desired. Hardly any strong Pokémon can hatch from the eggs, and very little stardust is obtained as well.
We recommend hatching the 7 km eggs and explain why they are better:
