Destiny and The Division have conquered the gaming market on PS4 and Xbox One. What similar games are in development? We believe there are up to three more titles like Destiny in the works. They will be revealed at E3.
If you look at the games that generated the most revenue digitally on PS4 and Xbox One, there’s no way to overlook Destiny, The Division, and GTA Online.
These games are referred to as “Games as a Service.” They continue to be developed even after release. They operate like a service or hobby. Even years after launch, these “Games as a Service” games continue to generate revenue and remain attractive to players as they receive new game content.
Destiny, The Division, GTA Online – the big winners of 2016 on PS4 and Xbox One
Although GTA Online V had been around for several years in 2016, it generated the third highest revenue: 378.9 million USD.
The Division had a rather rocky launch – nevertheless, it secured 4th place with 261.8 million USD.
With Destiny, very little happened in 2016 due to the postponement of Destiny 2 to 2017. Still, the game earned 214.1 million USD.
It’s clear: Other publishers also want a piece of this pie. Certainly, shooters with “MMO elements” have been in development for several years. Now they should be ripe enough to be shown to the public.
We think: At E3 2017 in June, we will see up to 3 new games that will resemble Destiny or The Division.
Existing titles are already shifting towards Games as a Service and PvE
The wave is already having an impact on the existing trio and their development. All three titles have increasingly focused their gameplay DNA on PvE and “Games as a Service”:
GTA V Online, originally a classic single-player title, has increasingly recognized the potential in the “Games as a Service” operation since its release. In recent months and years, this area has been expanded with updates: Suddenly, GTA V Online is about a lot of money, about businesses and enterprises.
In Destiny , the developers originally focused more on PvP like in a classic online shooter, but players found the coop aspects more interesting: Raids and Strikes, which feature PvE content, characterize Destiny and will surely be emphasized in the coming years. Quests have been increasingly integrated since Year 2, significantly improving the story elements.
Even in The Division , steps have already been taken to emphasize “PvE”. The Division has likely been more closely modeled after Destiny during development, with world rankings emphasizing PvE and grinding during ongoing operations.
What games are coming our way?
Since the success of Destiny, it’s clear that other studios will develop shooters with these coop and multiplayer elements.
Currently, no further title has been officially announced, but that should happen in the next 50 days. We expect that at E3 in June, one to three high-profile games will be revealed that will follow in the footsteps of Destiny and The Division.
It’s clear: Such a project devours money in the range of 100 million USD and upwards. Grand Theft Auto V reportedly cost 137 million USD. For Destiny, the development costs are estimated to be similarly high, even though the “500 million USD” that circulated for a long time were likely not reached. Additionally, both titles likely incurred just as much in marketing costs alone.
This can only be managed by a “publisher” giant that commissions a large development studio. On the next pages, we will examine the candidates we are keeping an eye on.
