8.2 billion people live on Earth. However, researchers have recalculated and believe that we have miscounted by hundreds of millions of people. Because above all, one group of people has likely been greatly underestimated: The rural population.
Officially, it is estimated that 8.15 billion people live on Earth. This number is provided by the Federal Statistical Office of the Federal Republic. However, population figures are always pure estimates, as no one has really counted every person on Earth.
For this reason, there has been ongoing discussion about whether and to what extent such estimates can actually be trusted. And researchers have now stated that the current estimates are likely to be significantly off.
According to researchers, the rural population is completely underestimated in many data sets
What do the researchers say? In a new study published in the journal Nature, researchers from the Finnish Aalto University show how the data of demographers “profoundly and systematically” underestimate the population figures worldwide. The problem with this is that, according to researchers, several hundred million people are supposed to be missing from the estimates. But where does this large discrepancy come from?
Where is the population missing? One aspect the researchers point to is the rural population. Because it is not correctly calculated. As Josias Láng-Ritter explains:
Our study provides evidence for the first time that a significant part of the rural population may be missing from global population data. Depending on the data set used, the rural population was underestimated by 53% to 84% during the examined period.
The results are remarkable because these data sets have been used in thousands of studies and have largely contributed to decision-making, yet their accuracy has not been systematically evaluated.
What is the actual problem? The problem is not the estimates, but the data foundation on which the estimates are based: Many states do not have the financial resources to collect extensive data about their population, and this especially affects the rural population.
According to researchers, there is a large discrepancy between the actual population and the figures on the population maps used for demographic studies. And these maps are then used for estimates, even though they are said to be inaccurate.
What did the researchers do? The researchers reviewed a total of 5 global gridded population data sets by calculating through 3 rural areas:
- First, systematic differences between the population grids are identified based on the 33 rural areas covered by all five data sets.
- Subsequently, the results are broken down according to the reference year of the map and the income level of the country, two aspects that are generally believed to affect map accuracy.
- Finally, the percentage deviations for the five data sets are presented in each of the 35 countries.
The problem becomes very clear with the new data: Even the lowest estimate for all areas examined consistently underestimates the reported population. It is also problematic that the estimates for several areas with more than 1,000 reported residents are close to zero. Individuals who are simply not counted in the estimates.
With an estimated or at least a made-up country, at least one Scot became very wealthy many years ago: He thrives on a South American country and becomes wealthy from it. What no one knows: The country does not exist on any map: A Scot becomes a millionaire because he sells an invented country twice
