The SF-MMO WildStar is going through a tough time three months after its release, it seems. It is also calm around The Elder Scrolls Online, albeit at a stable level.
MMOs have a certain cycle of attention. Marketing agencies work hard to ensure that interest peaks before the release when players are supposed to buy the MMO. Normally, interest in the game remains high in the first weeks, when everyone looks for information, magazines publish guides, and developers release more information to stir up interest in the game.
TESO started with Skyrim wind at its back, WildStar with its own momentum
We have observed these trend curves for WildStar and The Elder Scrolls Online in the past. Especially with The Elder Scrolls Online, the hype was enormous in the first weeks, probably due to the popular brand “Elder Scrolls” that players associate with hits like Morrowind and especially Skyrim.
Interest also rose steeply for WildStar – despite the absence of such a brand name.
Back then, we said for both games that it would be crucial how public interest would look like after a few months.
For both games, one can now say: Not so great. We chose the MMO “Guild Wars 2” as a comparison for the German market, which plays a good but not outstanding role in MMO interest here in Germany. Above all, Guild Wars 2 is very consistent and actually showed – as can also be seen in the graph – very few fluctuations from March to August.
After six weeks, interest in The Elder Scrolls Online and WildStar flattened
The hype around The Elder Scrolls Online was huge, many players expected a Skyrim Online.
In the graph, it can be seen that especially The Elder Scrolls Online reached an incredibly high peak around its release in April. Interest from Google users in The Elder Scrolls Online was at that time 5 times higher than that of Guild Wars 2. This value flattened over the months and sank below that of Guild Wars 2 around the release of WildStar in Germany.
WildStar had a significantly lower popularity boost upon its release in June than The Elder Scrolls Online did at its release – and this boost faded quickly. For both games, it can be observed that the initial hype only lasted for six weeks. After these six weeks, TESO was approximately the first time below Guild Wars 2 and after six weeks, WildStar had to position itself below The Elder Scrolls Online for the first time.
The Elder Scrolls Online now stable – WildStar … not
Whether the announced megaserver will bring WildStar back on track is uncertain.
The Elder Scrolls Online, however, was able to stop the loss relatively quickly. TESO managed to stabilize at a certain level. WildStar, on the other hand, has continued to decline in recent weeks. Whether interest is waning or will rise again remains open. With the release of Warlords of Draenor in the coming months, it seems unlikely that WildStar will recover too quickly. Warlords of Draenor is cutting into the WildStar target audience.
Currently, trends indicate that Guild Wars 2 is queried about twice as often on Google as The Elder Scrolls Online. And The Elder Scrolls Online is queried again twice as often as WildStar.
The trend in Germany corresponds to the worldwide trend.
My MMO says: Well, the numbers are not an ultimate indicator of how a game is really doing, but they are a pretty good trend likely aligning with public perception. Both WildStar and The Elder Scrolls Online launched this year to prove that the subscription model for MMOs can still work. Both games are facing some homegrown difficulties and are currently in a rebuilding phase. At the moment, it looks like The Elder Scrolls Online can at least rely on player loyalty. Here, perhaps, a comfortable niche has been found.
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