Blizzard’s free online card game Hearthstone drives millions of players crazy. They ponder why they lose so often. Could it be because the opponent has the coin so frequently? A website has now analyzed statistics to find out whether it’s better to play first or to have the coin.
In the free-to-play CCG Hearthstone, players can either play first and gain a tempo advantage by placing the first card on the board and later always reach a new maximum amount of mana first (basically, you play with White), or they must react to the opponent. To balance this, there is a coin in hand, which can be played without mana cost, granting an additional mana point just for that turn. It’s not like chess, where one player plays first and the other is unlucky, but both players start with a different situation.
The question now: What is actually better? The answer: It depends on the deck. Not enough for you? Alright, then let’s go into detail.
Statistics date back to the Closed Beta
The site arstechnica has obsessively worked on finding a more precise answer to this question. Even the designers of Hearthstone seem to be preoccupied with this question. Multiple times, there have been statistics from Blizzard’s Ben Brode, who mentioned back in September last year, still in the Closed Beta, that it was approximately 4.4% better to play first than to hold the coin.
Among the best players, however, this effect dissipates; there, playing first is only 0.7% better – almost a balance. Even back then, it was evident that Priests and Mages at the highest level often win more when starting with the coin rather than playing first. This trend solidified over the months as the game evolved. However, according to Brode, the advantage is marginal.
Who benefits from the coin and who suffers?
Arstechnica didn’t want to rely solely on Blizzard’s statistics but analyzed tournaments among top players and evaluated the results.
While in the analyzed 219 games at the top level, the overall results remained almost balanced (50.2% to 49.8% for playing first), certain trends became apparent:
- Hunters, Druids, and Warlocks are stronger when they play first.
- Rogues, Paladins, Mages, and Priests seem stronger when they have the coin.
- Warriors and Shamans have closely matched values.
Hearthstone much fairer than League of Legends
Arstechnica acknowledges that the number of analyzed games is quite low to make generalized statements, so the results should be taken with caution. Some trends nonetheless emerged: It is evident that a Hunter, when rushing the opponent with their minions, can effectively use the tempo advantage. Meanwhile, the popular “Miracle Rogue” clearly appreciates the flexibility of the coin when the final attack is imminent and knows how to turn it (warning, pun) into victories.
However, when it comes to fairness, Hearthstone gets a good rating. In other games, the “playing first advantage” is much larger. In League of Legends, it is 30%. The team that gets to pick the first champion wins that much more often.
If you’re interested in more statistics and do not want to rely solely on your gut feeling: Here is a link to the statistical distribution of the individual card tiers in the booster packs. How likely is it to draw a legendary card? And how rare are the golden ones?
