The end of Radical Heights shows for our author Schuhmann: Yes, the battle royale train is in full swing. But jumping on now could be damn hard. Because Fortnite is getting stronger every day.
Colorful instead of harsh: The studio Boss Key Productions has terrible timing. At first, they wanted to develop a hardcore skill-based shooter for people who liked Unreal Tournament – but they were too late, and Overwatch had already captured the market with its colorful look. Lawbreakers failed.
Then they wanted to somehow jump on the battle royale train, putting together a trashy 80s shooter. But they didn’t catch that hype train either. All that was left was the closure of the studio. But why couldn’t they jump on the battle royale train anymore?
Is it already too late for new battle royale games?
Better to follow your own vision? Now, one might say as a gaming purist who believes in the good, “It never pays to chase a trend. You have to be innovative, develop your own vision and pursue it – with everything you have. Only then can you be successful.”
But that would be completely wrong.
Because Fortnite threw its own vision in the trash when it flopped. Then they took the suitcase in hand and ran like crazy after the battle royale train. Not only did they catch it, but they also hijacked it. Now they are incredibly rich with it – and with the idea and vision of someone else.
PUBG was outraged: Hey, you are stealing our idea.
But no one found that very interesting back then. It seemed somehow uncapitalistic to complain about it. Why was the huge PUBG upset that such an insignificant game as Fortnite wanted to hitch a ride on the hype train? Nobody would care, they thought back then.
Now, six months later, we know how it turned out. Fortnite is probably the biggest game in the world.
The survival of the fittest: When Fortnite decided: “We are doing battle royale now,” there was only one qualitatively appealing alternative. That was PUBG. They had already displaced previous battle royale games like The Culling and H1Z1.
It is ironic that in a survival game, only the strongest survive and the weaker get eaten. Because it is not like single-player games, where there can never be enough games.
Once you’ve gone through the storyline of the role-playing game, you play the next one. No, in a genre like battle royale, there’s only room for a few titles. When a new one comes along, another must give way.
But PUBG, which managed to displace predecessors, also had weaknesses. It didn’t run particularly well, was unpolished, cost money, and was only on PC. Fortnite exploited these weaknesses.
Fortnite slipped through the gap that PUBG offered. Because Fortnite is free, runs smoothly, and is available on all platforms.
No license to print money: But does that mean it’s that easy to make money? Do you just have to develop a battle royale game, and then they will come? Is everyone just hot for new games? No. Because Fortnite has closed the gap through which they had squeezed themselves.
We see this in the failure of games like Radical Heights. It still had a start bonus. Because at the release, there was a long server downtime at Fortnite and a huge popularity boost for the underdog. But it didn’t help.
It’s getting harder to establish a new battle royale game
History repeats itself: The battle royale genre will go the same way as the MOBA genre a few years ago. Players find their MOBA and stick with it. There is no reason to switch games and try another one. There is no content that runs out, unlike in single-player games or online games with PvE content.
With every day that players play Fortnite (or PUBG), they become further bound to the game:
- Because they invest time in the game, learn the mechanics, and get better
- And they invest money in the game, buying new skins
- Furthermore, they make friendships, which further binds them to the game
The more someone plays Fortnite, the more tightly they bind themselves to the game through the mechanics.
For new games to break this bond again, they must convince and offer a new gameplay experience. In MOBAs, for years, no developer, not even giants like Blizzard, has succeeded in breaking into the phalanx of League of Legends and Dota 2. The market shares of Dota 2 and especially LoL are huge.
A few years ago, dozens of MOBAs sprouted up. Almost all have failed. Back then, the industry learned: “There is no MOBA hype out there – there is a LoL hype.”
It is doubtful that it will be any different with battle royale games. In the coming months, we are likely to see some disappointed developers who will shipwreck with their idea of a battle royale game.
The question is: Do players really want other battle royale games?
