In FIFA Ultimate Team, every fan hopes to pull a very good, preferably expensive player in their next pack. Unfortunately, not everyone has this luck. We look at the probability of getting a Messi or Ronaldo.
So many players, yet one only wants the one
The Ultimate Team mode includes more than 15,000 different players that you can find in various packs in the shop for coins or FIFA Points. Which players do you want to pull? Probably the best, the most expensive, the rarest players!
Let’s take Cristiano Ronaldo from Real Madrid as an example. If someone were to find him in a pack, he would certainly not say “no.” But what are the chances of getting him? If you open a pack with four players, one would think that the chances are 1 in 3750 to get the desired player. However, this is not the case. Some players, like CR7, are significantly rarer than others.
The card weighting is crucial
The “card weighting” is a unit that indicates how frequently a particular card is traded on the FIFA 16 Ultimate Team transfer market. The higher the weighting, the more often you find this card on the market. Essentially, it shows how rare the player is. The card weighting of Ronaldo is 2 – the lowest in the game. This suggests that you are 100 times less likely to pull Ronaldo than David Luiz, whose value is 200. By the way, this unit is not publicly displayed in the game.
However, this value should not be taken blindly to gauge how often a player is pulled from packs, as it only indicates how often the card is traded on the transfer market. If the player is kept or sold instantly, he does not appear in the card weighting. Nevertheless, it is a good indicator of the rarity of the respective player in packs.
What are the chances of getting a C. Ronaldo?
Through complex calculations, one arrives at a value to compute the chances of getting a Cristiano Ronaldo in a pack. However, the details of these calculations are not presented. But this is the result (based on the standard cards) that we are presented with:
For every player in a pack, the chances are 1 in 150,000 that it is a Cristiano Ronaldo.
Well, is that good or bad? Just think of a number between 1 and 150,000 and let a friend guess that number. How many attempts does he need? Surely thousands. In other words: you will have to open thousands of packs, and even then there is no guarantee that this desired player is in the pack.
In the top ten of the best players in FIFA 16 (according to overall strength), none has a higher card weighting than 40. Even with this value, the chance per player card is 1 in 1,400 that you pull the world-class footballer. By the way, the probability for Messi is said to be 1 in 60,000 per player card.
You just need an incredible amount of luck. But at least the chances of getting a C. Ronaldo are better than hitting the jackpot in the lottery – which is around 1 in 140 million.
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