In FIFA 20, the probability of getting the best cards in packs is clearly displayed. As in previous years, the chance of getting top players like Lionel Messi in Ultimate Team is tiny.
Here’s how expensive top players are: Getting top players in FIFA 20 is not easy at all. As usual, you can buy players on the transfer market. However, the absolute top players are incredibly expensive and nearly unaffordable. Through smart trading, you can quickly earn coins in FIFA – but even trading methods reach their limits eventually, especially if you don’t want to spend all day doing it.
Through various rewards, such as from the Weekend League, you can earn a decent amount of coins. However, if you want to acquire Messi, for example, it becomes really difficult.
To get him, you really have to save a lot of coins. It’s no surprise that many players try to pull top cards from packs. This can work – but only if you have a real luck day.
Top and event cards remain unlikely
Your chance is as follows: If you look at the probabilities in packs, you will find that the chances of top cards are again extremely low:
- In the standard gold pack, the chance of getting a gold player with a rating of 83 or higher is only 3.3 percent.
- The chance of getting an OTW player during the event from a gold pack was even under one percent.
What are the chances with the Premium Gold Pack in FIFA 20?
Here’s how the other packs stand: Even in the better packs, the chances do not look any brighter. The Premium Gold Pack gives you at least a 4.4 percent chance of getting a player with a rating of at least 84. The OTW chance was also below one percent here.
It is not specified how far below one percent the probability lies. It could be a probability of 0.9 – or one of 0.01 or worse.
Currently, the Premium Gold Jumbo Pack is still available in the shop. Here, the OTW chance is at least one percent.
The chance of pulling a player over 85 is 4.4 percent.
Pulling a Messi with 94 requires a lot of luck. To put it into perspective: Currently, there are 110 gold cards with a rating of 85 or higher. The chance of getting any of those players in the case of the Premium Jumbo Gold Pack is only 4.4 percent.
To pull one of the truly expensive players, you need even more luck. Because: Players like Messi, Ronaldo, or Neymar, who could bring you real money, are also in this group alongside cards like Aspas, Lopes, or Bürki. Although they have a rating of 85, they generally bring you relatively little money.
With some of the best packs in FIFA 20, you can reduce the risk somewhat, as the probabilities look better in some cases, but the chances still remain low.
Overall, pulling packs is, in most cases, a losing proposition. If you want to build your team, you should rather try on the transfer market.
A suggestion for a good starter team can be found here.
