In FIFA 19, the content of the Ultimate Team Sets is designed to be more transparent. Players should have a better idea of what is included in the packs. But what exactly could that look like?
The discussion about loot boxes is becoming more heated. EA could even face a multi-million dollar penalty if the sets in FIFA Ultimate Team are considered gambling in the Netherlands.
For FIFA 19, it was announced in an interview with eurogamer that starting from the next FUT season, the chances of getting different cards in packs will be displayed.
FIFA 19 Ultimate Team: Drop rate for packs will be displayed
More information about FUT sets. EA Sports Vice President and COO Daryl Holt confirmed at the Gamelab Conference in Spain that starting from FIFA 19, the contents of the packs will be more transparent. Previously, buyers were aware of the value of the set contents. In the future, EA also wants to display the probabilities, which will tell you how realistic it is to pull something specific.
“For Ultimate Team, when you buy a pack you know what you are getting. You are getting a certain number of assets that are guaranteed – and we’re going to start to do pack odds disclosures that’ll show you the odds of what you might get.
“That’ll be in our product year 19 titles. So, at least that aspect of understanding what the chances are of getting X, Y and Z card.”
The current information situation is opaque. The statement that one knows in Ultimate Team what one gets when buying a pack is not entirely accurate. The buyer knows how many of the included cards are Bronze, Silver, or Gold and how many of the items are rare. What is not clear, however, is: How many players are in the set, and how many of the items are relatively useless consumables? There are pure player card packs, but their description is similarly misleading. According to the text, this set contains “unique top players”. This definition is extremely relative, as most of the time one can be glad if there is even a player in such packs that is usable.
What probabilities will EA display to players?
Unlikely: The drop rate of individual players. Many fans probably hope for an exact display of all drop rates. How likely is it that Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo is waiting in this pack? This case will likely not occur. Apart from the enormous amount of data that would need to be displayed, EA would be cutting its own throat. Who would buy a pack if they knew beforehand that the chance of getting a desired player is close to zero?
More likely: The drop rate for ratings. It would be more plausible to display the probabilities of individual ratings. For each set, it would be known how likely it is to get, for example, a player with a rating of 86. The problem for buyers: There are extreme price fluctuations for cards with the same ratings. A Radja Nainggolan (86) is significantly more valuable due to his stats than a Pepe (also 86). Thus, while the probability of drawing an 86-rated player could be high, the probability of getting Pepe could be much higher.
Another option: Guaranteed ratings. A no less likely possibility has already been partially practiced. Each set would specify what player ratings are guaranteed to be received. For example, “at least three 83+ players” in a “Rare Player Set”. Something similar also existed with “81+ Sets”, which could only be obtained through Squad Building Challenges and not purchased. There, two rare gold players were included, one of which had at least an 81 rating.
Conclusion: We will see changes in the “FIFA Ultimate Team” sets. However, it is doubtful that we will really learn how likely it is to pull a CR7 or Messi. The insights into drop rates will likely revolve more around ratings.
How EA will decide, we will probably see at the latest in September at the release. If you want to have all the new features at a glance, check out our “FIFA 19 Overview”!
