In the MMO shooter Destiny, Xur has been causing trouble for some time now. What is behind the fans’ frustration? A user on Reddit has calculated the probabilities behind the frustration.
Why does Xur only have cr…?
The black market dealer Xur regularly irritates the fans. In a Destiny popularity ranking, he ranks directly behind Guardian enemy No. 1, the Cryptarch Rahool, and just ahead of the Gorgons in the raid.
We report at mein-mmo.de every Friday on what colleague “Tentacle in the Face” has on offer. Hardly a week goes by without players swearing: This is definitely the last straw. He has nothing useful, and Bungie has simply failed to design this properly. One should stop playing this garbage game immediately and instead play something else – even if it’s Ponyhof Online. And LOL?! Bungie? Why am I even playing the only class, that always gets the same gloves?
A user on Reddit found the complaints of the fans too colorful and tackled the whole thing with cold mathematics – probably only until he doesn’t get what he wants himself, and then he gets just as upset as the rest of us.
What a beautiful Christmas it will be
Every week, Xur has one of six armor pieces per class on offer. However, it is by no means the case that this always changes, and after six weeks, each piece will have been available once.
Probability calculation is nasty: If you already have five armor pieces, the probability that Xur now has exactly the missing one on offer and you stroll away from him with a grin is quite low. If, of course, you don’t have any exotic armor piece in Destiny yet, Xur always has something for you.
Mathematically speaking, the “expected” number of attempts until all six armor pieces per class have been available at least once in the black market shop in Destiny is: 15. Since Xur only comes every week, players can still wait until December 26 for it to be at least mathematically probable that they have seen each of their six class items at least once. So for all those Warlocks looking for their “Heart of Praxic Fire” (showcased in the title image), statistically, you’re not even up yet, and you only really have reason to be upset starting from Christmas. You could take a die and count the attempts until you’ve seen each of the six digits at least once.
For armor pieces, there are only 6 pieces per class that Xur can offer (3 helmets, 2 armors, and 1 pair of gloves) – but things look much darker with the weapons.
This is how the probabilities look for the exotic weapons in Destiny
Xur can offer twelve exotic weapons – not all exotic guns in Destiny, but enough to drive the Guardians insane. Statistically speaking, it will take until June 5, 2015, before each of them is “expected” to be available at least once. So: You out there, who are still waiting for Thunderlord, Mida-Multi-Tool, The Last Word, Plan C, Hard Light or the Universal Remote (these weapons have not been with Xur yet): it’s all still within reason. You just need patience and time – and no, not the gun of the same name –
By June 2015, new exotic weapons will likely be available in the shop anyway. With the expansions, new Exotics are expected to come. If you are interested in which exotic armors and weapons Xur has on offer, you can read about it in this article on Destiny.
More about the MMO shooter, where the biggest hate figures are merchant NPCs, can be found on our themed page for Destiny.
