Analyst Michael Pachter comments on the MMO shooter Destiny and shares his assessment of the situation, touching on questions such as when the next DLC House of Wolves will be released, what to expect from the major expansion Comet, how frequently new content will arrive, and what Activision’s master plan looks like.
Michael Pachter is a well-known gaming analyst, specializing in explaining to readers what goes on “behind the scenes” and what developers might be thinking economically when making decisions. Pachter is somewhat controversial, as his accuracy rate is too low, yet he is often consulted for advice and his assessment.
The website gamingbolt recently interviewed him about Destiny. Pachter has also spoken with Activision and weaves in “insider” information into his opinion and assessment of the situation.
Pachter believes:
- The larger expansion this year (Comet) will be as expansive as a WoW expansion, meaning more of a $40 affair with a 10-level cap higher than the current $20 DLCs offering 2 new levels.
- New DLC content should come every 4 months, which would mean three expansions a year, two of those for $20, one large for $40.
- Activision has learned from WoW how not to do it: if you only release a new expansion every two years, you lose players. Thus, they want to offer Destiny players something more frequently to keep them engaged.
- A good schedule for releasing DLCs, according to Pachter, would be April, August, November; a release had already occurred in December this year. Thus, it might come down to December, May, November. Activision’s goal is to always give players something to do in Destiny.
- Activision intends to generate approximately $60 each year from expansions for Destiny. This is roughly akin to players buying a new Call of Duty every year. It seems to lead towards introducing a “quasi-subscription model.” All major franchises are currently striving to convert the MMO subscription model into a “pay-to-go” model while not giving up the revenue from the initial box sale. Electronic Arts has been following this policy for a long time, for example, with FIFA Ultimate Team.
- Activision wants to gradually increase the player base; they had 3.5 million in November and later reached 5 million daily. By the end of the year, they aim for perhaps 7 million active players per day, by the end of 2016, 9 million, by the end of 2017, 11 million, and then Destiny 2 will be released and sell 20 million units. This is, according to Pachter, Activision’s master plan.
Mein MMO says: Pachter’s assessments align with what we know or at least what the leaks have indicated. It indeed appears that “Comet” will be some sort of Destiny 1.5 with 10 new levels, new weapon types, and plenty of new gameplay content. It is intriguing that Pachter sees a release for Destiny 2 only in 2018. Given the current pace, a September 2016 release seemed imminent, but with 10 years, that hardly fits. There are also indications that House of Wolves may indeed release in May, especially given that there currently seems to be little to do in Destiny.
If Comet were really to come out in November 2015 and “House of Wolves” were only a relatively small content expansion, it seems extremely questionable whether Destiny can actually meet its ambitious plans. Four months between DLC – perhaps with part of the content arriving 6 weeks later, as it is now, seems like a reasonable idea. Had they stuck to that, “House of Wolves” would be due at the beginning of April, and the situation would be much more relaxed.
It’s unfortunate that Pachter does not comment on a possible PC port of Destiny. This does not seem to have been a topic at Activision at all in recent months.
What Pachter says about how major publishers are looking for means to continuously monetize their MMO games aligns completely with our assessment.
