A forecast certifies Destiny 2 now excellent prospects of becoming a hit, even on PC. It has the potential to be the biggest launch since Overwatch on PC.
SuperData analyzes video games and their chances in the market. They evaluate data and then say: This is how many units the game will sell digitally. That is our forecast.
Now the company has dealt with Destiny 2 and has run thousands of simulations on the sales expectations for Destiny 2.
They believe:
- Destiny 2 will sell digitally 3 to 5 million times on PC, PS4, and Xbox One in the first three months.
- The data and simulations say: Destiny 2 should become the best-selling premium PC game digitally since Overwatch. Overwatch was released in May 2016.
According to SuperData, they conducted thousands of simulations and calculated probabilities for success.
The sales distribution with the highest probability looks like this: Destiny 2 will sell about 1.5-2 million units digitally on PC in the first 3 months and 2.5-3 million units on PS4 and Xbox One.
That would mean, that the PC platform will be a good place to play Destiny 2. One won’t complain about empty servers or lack of players.
The Battle.net Effect
An important role for this analysis is that Destiny 2 is distributed via Battle.net. This is Blizzard’s own launcher, on which WoW, Overwatch, Hearthstone, and other games run. The expected additional sales through this distribution channel have been included by Superdata in their calculations. They call this the “Battle.net” effect.
Destiny 2 will be exclusively distributed on PC via Battle.net. There is no Steam version of Destiny 2.
On PS4 and Xbox One, Destiny 1 was already a big hit, but only now does the franchise make its debut on PC, albeit with additional delays. The launch date in September is also taken into account. The PC version will be released a few weeks after that for PS4 and Xbox One.
SuperData says the simulations are the result of quantitative analyses of the past from over 500 titles.
We discuss the difficulties of the PC port of Destiny 2 here:
