The last glimmer of hope in Destiny was three years ago, according to our author Schuhmann. For Bungie and Destiny 2, everything is at stake with Forsaken. The game feels like a staggering prizefighter. The question is: Is it going down for the count?
In the hustle and bustle surrounding the new expansion, it is easy to forget how critical the situation for Bungie and their glorious 10-year project Destiny really is. Over the last year, Destiny has taken many hits, although the game has never really faced a financial crisis. But that is now looming.
Forsaken could not only be the last stand for Cayde-6, but also for Bungie.
Bungie has been sailing with a lot of tailwind for 4 years
The situation: Destiny is on paper a success story. The shooter has generated a pile of money for his studio Bungie and the publisher Activision over the last 4 years:
- Destiny 1 sold like crazy in 2014 – at that time Bungie was still riding the wave of fame from “Halo”
- When the game was released, however, many were disillusioned
- Only “The Taken King” in September 2015 gave Destiny a new boost
- Destiny earned a lot of money through microtransactions and DLCs from 2014 to 2016
- Even in 2016, when not much happened in Destiny, the game generated almost as much revenue as The Division in its launch year – Destiny made $214.1 million digitally in a really weak year
- In 2017, players then rushed to buy the Deluxe Edition of Destiny 2 with DLCs 1 and 2 included – customers gave Destiny and Bungie a huge vote of confidence for the first year of “Destiny 2”
Credit is now gone
The problem: This constant flow of money is now threatening to dry up for the first time. The last time Destiny was really good was three years ago with The Taken King. Since then, Destiny has been living off “pump” from the good old days.
Destiny 2 sold well primarily because Bungie was still able to play with the credit from The Taken King in 2017. But many have regretted the purchase of Destiny 2 for almost a year now.
The mood after the launch of Destiny 2 was catastrophic. In the age of social media, such things do not disappear but rather stick around.
A lot of resentment has built up
Veterans say “Never again”: Even now, posts from former players can be seen on social networks expressing the feeling that Bungie has betrayed them with Destiny 2. They are no longer willing to believe Bungie’s promises and spend money on the expansion again.
Observers also feel that the same patterns are repeating in Destiny: promises and disappointments alternate.
Many a promise before “Forsaken” has been heard before.
2015 sounds like 2018: The situation before Forsaken feels familiar to critics like a Deja-Vu.
In 2015, players were supposed to buy an expansion that would give them the experience that had been promised a year earlier. This “double payment” frustrates some:
- First for the base game with two expansions – 2014 and 2017
- and then once again for the “real expansion,” which is then “actually good” – 2015 and 2018
Destiny 2 feels like a flop in 2018, despite being a hit
All goodwill is gone: The situation of Destiny 2 has deteriorated significantly from 2017 to 2018. Despite the game’s success, it feels like a flop after constant criticism from players.
Even in otherwise jubilant financial reports from Activision, Destiny 2 seemed like a black sheep that needed to be apologized for. Although Activision praised the good numbers, it always mentioned that it was reacting to the negative feedback.
Clearly: The credit that once was is almost fully depleted. Declining player numbers clearly show this.
Activision and Bungie are also noticing this in the bank balance: Despite the more aggressive cash shop, Destiny 2 has long been absent from the top 10 charts of digital revenue. Since March 2018, Destiny has dropped out, while a game like Fortnite has soared from record to record during the same time.
The market is getting crowded: Additionally, The Division 2 and Anthem are two potential competitors waiting in the wings. They will be released in February 2019.
With Call of Duty 4, Red Dead Redemption 2, Battlefield V, and Fallout 76, 2018 is still packed with shooters targeting a similar audience.
The situation is serious
Forsaken as the last chance: Destiny 2 has been living off the old days for the last three years. With Forsaken, the studio will have to deliver. If “Forsaken” disappoints, it could mean the end of the Destiny game series.
The irony of the situation is that Destiny 2 has sold remarkably well and the DLCs have also performed well. Bungie has never faced a drought financially over the last 4 years.
But the last years have been so mixed that Bungie now faces an enormously difficult task. All momentum has been consumed. Forsaken needs to give Destiny a sustainable new drive to carry the franchise into the coming years.
It is hard to imagine that there will be a Destiny 3 if Forsaken fails.
Will Forsaken bring the turnaround? It is difficult to say at the moment. There are almost no new features or innovations in the expansion.
Forsaken, on the other hand, focuses on old strengths. Forsaken wants
- to create a more serious tone,
- to bring back the hobby
- and give players more control over their guardians.
The hope of the fans ultimately is that the restructuring behind the scenes at Bungie, which has been observable since 2016, finally brings about a turnaround.
For such a turnaround, it will be necessary to:
- react faster to fans’ wishes,
- push out game content more quickly
- drive innovation forward
- and find a design direction to stick to and develop the game
All of this is what Bungie has promised for years. Fans have believed them for years. Last before Destiny 2.
But it is clear: Never before has the mood before a “major release” been so skeptical as it is now before Destiny 2 Forsaken.
Fateful week for Destiny
The next week with Forsaken may be the decisive week in the history of the franchise so far.
Destiny currently feels like an award-winning boxer who has become unsteady. Next week we will see if the champion goes into his last bout with Forsaken or if the story of Destiny 2 is just beginning.
