The new Call of Duty: Vanguard has become a solid CoD. However, interest in the latest installment of the shooter series is lower than it has been in years. In Germany, the shooter achieves, according to Google Trends, less than half the relevance of Modern Warfare (2019). MeinMMO embarks on a quest to find out why.
What kind of CoD is Vanguard? The new Call of Duty uses the familiar setting of “World War II” and comes with a campaign for solo players, PvP action in multiplayer mode, and PvE slaughter in zombie mode.
When it comes to technology, Vanguard relies on a polished graphic engine from Modern Warfare, the CoD from 2019, and plays quite similarly. At launch, the most important mode, the multiplayer, offers a large amount of content and enjoyable gameplay.
Nevertheless, the release attracted little interest, largely due to self-inflicted “problems”. The CoD series is no longer the same as it was three years ago.
The hype for Vanguard is missing at release
Is interest really so low? A strong indicator of interest in a game is Google Trends. With this tool, you can check how many search queries there have been in connection with a particular game or series. Let’s take a look at the “trends” of the last 5 years for the keyword “game series – Call of Duty”:
We have color-coded the CoD releases of the last few years. The highest interest in the last 5 years was drawn by CoD WWII from 2017 and Modern Warfare from 2019. The scale ends with the new Vanguard in second to last place and Black Ops 4 from 2018 with the lowest volume at release.
After the release of Black Ops 4, the CoD series was considered a problem franchise at publisher Activision. Sales were below expectations, and there were even layoffs that could be related to the poor performance (via venturebeat.com).
Currently, interest in Vanguard looks similarly low, at least in terms of Google Trends.
Also, the first sales figures show this picture, and Vanguard sells around 40% less in the UK compared to last year’s Cold War at release. This could be the worst start of a CoD in 14 years. Nevertheless, Vanguard was the second largest release in 2021 in the UK behind FIFA 22 and debuted at number 1 in the sales charts (via vgc.com).
A self-inflicted “royal” problem
Why is Vanguard performing relatively poorly? There are several reasons for this:
- The setting was rated significantly worse than in the last two years
- With Battlefield 2042, a hyped competitor is also releasing in November
However, there is one thing that affects the premium title the most: Call of Duty: Warzone. Let us again refer to the graph from Google Trends:
The free battle royale has given the CoD series a significant boost. Along with the live seasons introduced with Modern Warfare 2019, Call of Duty suddenly remained relevant throughout the year. The volume is therefore higher year-round, instead of being concentrated on the releases at the end of the year.
Especially the first 6 months of Warzone were a big hit, and in April 2021, the battle royale reported 100 million players.
In the latest quarterly report “Quarter 3” from Activision Blizzard, there are even mentions of 119 million monthly active players across the entire CoD franchise including CoD Mobile (via activision.com). The growth in numbers compared to the previous year is mainly attributed to the mobile offshoot.
Thus, Call of Duty has evolved since 2019 into a title that is no longer relevant only briefly after a major release. CoD is now a topic throughout the year and therein lies the risk for annual premium titles.
Instead of just picking up the full CoD dose once a year and spending money on the premium title in November, CoD now caters to its audience year-round. If someone wants their ration of CoD, they start Warzone and no longer feel the strong desire for a full-priced title at release.
Does Vanguard still have a chance?
The big hype for the release of CoD 2021 is missing, but this is not necessarily a bad sign for Vanguard. Here, we still need to wait for the significant Pacific update of the still popular Warzone and the upcoming Christmas business.
Call of Duty is no longer a sprint franchise due to Warzone and CoD Mobile – it’s more of a marathon now. This has already been evident from the sales of Vanguard’s predecessor, Cold War. The Black Ops from 2020 managed to deliver the best premium sales in a third quarter compared to all premium titles prior to the release of Warzone.
The officials at Activision Blizzard point out in the quarterly report that they observe a high conversion of free-to-play players switching from the free Warzone to a paid title.
CoD stands at a crossroads. Cold War had significantly higher interest at release than Vanguard, despite Warzone, and it remains to be seen whether Vanguard is indeed rejected by many players or if Cold War was simply not yet part of this “Warzone spiral”.
However, it is certain: The release hype for Vanguard was absent, and sales were significantly below those of the previous year in some cases. Nevertheless, the new World War CoD has good chances for commercial success – because it has become a strong CoD that still needs some breathing room.
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