After the separation of Bungie and Activision was announced, a major analysis firm expects Destiny 3 to be released in 2020. The company also provides its own assessments regarding the “divorce” and the performance of Destiny 2.
What happened? After Bungie announced it would end the partnership with publisher Activision, fans are wondering what will happen to the Destiny series. As Community Manager DeeJ recently stated on Twitter, the previous plans for 2019 will be adhered to.
But what comes next? The market research and analysis company Cowen & Company is already providing investors with an initial assessment.
What the company says about the future of Destiny: Shortly after the separation became known, Cowen & Company wrote a report for investors. It states, among other things, that Bungie will release a third part of Destiny – specifically in 2020 and despite the separation.
How realistic is this assessment? This assessment sounds plausible and aligns with the assumptions and theories held by many fans.
A Redditor, AnonTheNine, claimed that Bungie is already working on Destiny 3 and even revealed some alleged details. It is said that Destiny 3 is intended to cater more to hardcore fans.
After the separation, Bungie could implement this idea more easily without pressure from Activision and realize its own vision of the franchise in a new game.
The leaker is considered trustworthy in the community and is highly regarded. He is responsible for numerous leaks about Destiny 2, all of which have proven accurate so far.
What also speaks for a Destiny 3 in 2020 is the previous release schedule. Destiny 1 was released in 2014, followed by major expansions in 2015 and 2016. Destiny 2 came out in 2017 and also received a major expansion in 2018 with Forsaken.
What comes in the fall of 2019 is still unknown, but a second major expansion is likely. In this context, Destiny 3 in 2020 also sounds quite logical and understandable.
What Cowen & Company says about the separation: The analysis company also provided additional assessments regarding the “divorce” of Bungie and Activision.
Originally, a new Destiny game was supposed to be released every 2 years. This plan could not be adhered to and was changed to a new game every 3 years. This may have contributed to the ever-growing differences regarding the franchise’s direction. However, other factors also played a role.
Even if Destiny 2 may have been economically successful in terms of individual unit sales, it has not brought in the revenues that Activision had hoped for in the long term. In an earnings call, Bungie was even reprimanded by Activision for this.
Bungie’s attempts to appeal to a broader player base with a casual-oriented franchise have failed. Forsaken received positive reviews, but it apparently wasn’t good enough to bring back a sufficient number of lapsed players.
Cowen & Company believes that Activision is now distancing itself from Bungie to strengthen its own franchises like Call of Duty, even if it will lead to financial losses in the short term.
The loss of Destiny will ultimately hurt the publisher. Activision Blizzard is expected to lower its profit expectations.
The focus on its own franchises is ultimately more worthwhile than continuing to pour resources into a struggling brand like Destiny.
In conclusion, Cowen & Company stated that this separation is the best thing for the Destiny franchise. Having two chefs in one kitchen has negatively impacted development and been responsible for some low points.
Destiny was a worthwhile attempt by Activision to build another franchise pillar that, however, did not go as planned. This underscores how difficult it is to develop and operate a successful live service.
