The World Cup 2022 in Qatar has begun. Both bookmakers and artificial intelligences are trying to predict the winner. According to AI Opta-Analyst, 3 teams in particular have the greatest chance of winning the title. This prediction roughly matches what EA found out with FIFA 23.
What does the AI say? The highest chances are likely:
- Brazil – 16.3 %
- Argentina – 13.1 %
- France – 12 %
Behind them, Spain (8.9 %), England (8.8 %), Germany (7.7 %), and the Netherlands (6.6 %) follow at a distance. The teams with the least chance of winning the World Cup are considered to be Iran, Ghana, and Australia with 0.1 %, as well as Saudi Arabia and Costa Rica, which even have a 0 % probability (via Twitter).
The interesting thing about the AI is that it specializes in data around sports events such as soccer, basketball, and American football. It has a large database that can be accessed to make this prediction.
However, there is no guarantee, as not only statistics come into play at a World Cup, but many other factors such as current form, team morale, and injuries.
EA arrives at a similar result with FIFA 23
What did EA predict? On November 9, EA published a blog post announcing the winner of the 2022 World Cup. According to the football simulation FIFA 23, Argentina will be world champion in the final against Brazil.
France takes third place, keeping the top 3 identical to what the AI predicted. Only the first and second places have switched. By the way, Germany got knocked out by Brazil in the quarter-finals with a score of 0:3 in FIFA.
A French colleague from Jeuxvideo also simulated the World Cup multiple times. There, Argentina, Brazil, France, and Spain won the most titles. However, England managed to sneak in a win:
What do the bookmakers say? Looking at common betting odds, Brazil and Argentina are usually at the top regarding the World Championship title. They are followed in varying orders by England, France, Spain, and Germany.
What do you think, who will be the World Champion this year? And how realistic do you see Germany’s chances? Feel free to write it in the comments.
In FIFA 23, there is now the World Cup mode. We have summarized all the important information about it here:
FIFA 23: World Cup mode starts now with an update – All information about the release
