In 2017, the expansion Path of Fire for Guild Wars 2 was released and received positive feedback, especially for the mounts. However, since then, the MMORPG has been rather quiet. The third expansion is set to follow in 2021. It must be a success to keep GW2 running long-term, says MeinMMO editor Alexander Leitsch.
Where does Guild Wars 2 stand at the end of 2020? The MMORPG from ArenaNet is currently in a difficult situation:
- On one hand, there is a content update every 2 months, along with events and smaller innovations in between. Revenue rose significantly in the third quarter of 2020 and is as good as it has been since 2018.
- On the other hand, however, many players feel a lack of excitement. There are no major innovations. Each update does advance the story but is very similar to all previous patches. Additionally, ArenaNet is still struggling with mass layoffs from early 2019. Since then, the updates for GW2 have been rather small in nature.
Nevertheless, there is great hope among the fans of the MMORPG. For 2021, the new expansion “End of Dragons” is set to be released. This brings the continent of Cantha, known from GW1, and a complete setting change to an Asian world.
Why is the expansion so important? Every new expansion for Guild Wars 2 created a bit of hype. There is discussion about innovations, speculations, and players who had stopped playing are looking at the game again.
If “End of Dragons” does not impress with its innovations and convince players, it will be difficult for ArenaNet to plan for Guild Wars 2 long-term.
The regular content updates can only partially keep the players engaged. New players, on the other hand, are not attracted at all, and are rather deterred because they have to pay for missed updates.
The GW2 model simply fails to create hype outside of expansions. A problem that the MMORPG has been carrying since its release.
Rocky Start and Many Experiments
How was the release? Guild Wars 2 was released in 2012 and was considered a major MMORPG hope. After all, the game was the successor to the quite successful Guild Wars 1, had been in development for about 5 years, and aimed to do some things differently.
It promised:
- A large and constantly changing world through dynamic events
- Action-packed and dynamic combat thanks to a dodge roll and the fact that you never had to stand still to cast skills
- A beautiful graphics with many details
- A story that builds on the first part
- No grind
- According to the manifesto, GW2 was especially meant for players who usually do not like MMOs
Indeed, Guild Wars 2 managed to captivate many players during the beta and the first weeks. Especially the combat system and the open world were convincing. The interest in the game was huge.
However, due to the absence of an item spiral and slow content updates, some players lacked goals and long-term motivation. There were no raids, and the dungeons and events played out very similarly over time.
Another problem was that many fans of GW1 were rather dissatisfied with the successor. Much was new and not at all like in the predecessor. Additionally, the focus was no longer on PvP as it had been, especially at the release of GW1.
By the end of 2012, interest in the game noticeably declined, as can be seen in Google Trends:
Experiments in Content Updates: The next 2 years saw the developers experimenting. With the Living World Season 1, there was a unique system: New content was released every 2 weeks, which however completely disappeared 2-4 weeks later.
- There were special story contents, dungeons, and even entire maps that were removed again after the period.
- There were permanent updates to old maps. For example, new buildings were erected or settlements destroyed in the war.
- Content was even implemented that later had an impact on the entire game. There was a campaign between two politicians, and the players decided who won, receiving a tailored story and a specific dungeon as a reward.
This update principle did not work, however. It was stressful for the developers, but also for the players. Anyone who was on vacation for two weeks or longer missed out on content that could not be experienced again. Achievement hunters and collectors were constantly on their toes, as rewards were also removed.
The Middle Ground: ArenaNet then decided on a middle ground in 2014. With the Living World Season 2, the story events took place on special maps. The achievements and the core story remained permanently, only changes on the map and dialogues changed through new updates.
The First Expansion and a Small Hype
In 2015, to the surprise of many, the first expansion Heart of Thorns was announced. While up until then all updates were completely free, for the first time since the release, money had to be spent on the MMORPG again.
Heart of Thorns offered some innovations, including:
- 4 new areas
- Expansions for the classes
- The mastery system in the form of gliding, jumping mushrooms, and other content that only made players stronger in new areas
- First raids for endgame
- Guild halls
Indeed, Heart of Thorns managed to excite both old and new players for GW2. ArenaNet also decided to offer the base game as a Free2Play version. This also attracted newcomers.
However, even after HoT, there was another long content pause. Additionally, ArenaNet returned to the old update routine with Living World Season 3, with each update now featuring a new area, and the intervals becoming longer. An episode was released every 3-4 months.
All of this was complicated by the fact that updates were first offered for free, but after the release of the following episode, they had to be purchased. This system still exists today. Anyone starting with GW2 now has to only buy the second expansion Path of Fire, which already includes HoT, but they still miss Living World Season 2, 3, 4, and 5, which have to be purchased separately.
Additionally, up to this day, the contents of Living World Season 1 cannot be replayed, leaving a gap in the story.
Path of Fire Impresses, but the Hype Quickly Fades
In 2017, the second expansion Path of Fire was released. It impressed especially with the very innovative mounts.
As can be seen from Google Trends, this expansion also generated a bit more interest again. However, while some players returned for Path of Fire, as it revisited familiar areas from GW1, many did not stay long.
The problem lay in the areas, which were by no means as well designed as those in Heart of Thorns and the slow innovations in group content.
ArenaNet also returned subsequently to the Living World. A system that mainly benefits hardcore players.
Last Chance: End of Dragons
What is different about End of Dragons? As interest has decreased from expansion to expansion, End of Dragons could bring about a change. At least if ArenaNet gets some things right.
The interest in the Asian-inspired continent of Cantha is high. Especially the areas consisting of the traditionally inspired island of Shing-Jea, the huge cities and skyscrapers in Kaineng, and the Jade Sea provide variety in the otherwise quite monotonous mix of desert, ice, and forest in Guild Wars 2.
With a good implementation, both veterans and old GW1 fans as well as completely new players could be excited. The demand for a new MMORPG, where one can let loose, is high, as we constantly notice at MeinMMO.
What must End of Dragons accomplish? The most important thing for the new expansion is a unique selling point. Heart of Thorns had the masteries and a new class, Path of Fire brought the mounts. End of Dragons needs to offer something that attracts both old and new players.
Possible contents could be:
- New classes
- New playable races
- New endgame content that binds players long-term
- Adjustments to the equipment system
- Housing
Additionally, the expansion must already offer substantial content, including new areas, a new story, new group content, and ideally the familiar elite specializations of existing classes.
The advantage of class expansions lies primarily in the fact that they also rejuvenate old content like raids, WvW, and PvP.
In my opinion, it would also be important that the new expansion brings two contents that players have been waiting for:
- On the one hand, the alliance system in WvW, for which there have been no updates for over 2 years
- On the other hand, new raids, which many players are desperately waiting for. The last one was released in May 2019
However, the list of requirements is already long, and it is unlikely that ArenaNet can fulfill them all.
What happens if End of Dragons disappoints? Guild Wars 2 could have ended in 2019. The finale of Living World Season 4 concluded an important part of the story, and indeed, there was supposedly a discussion at ArenaNet that this would mark the end of the MMORPG’s development.
But they decided against it.
What led to the turnaround is not known. Possible reasons could be the layoffs in early 2019 and the fact that there is currently neither a successor nor another title in ArenaNet’s portfolio. They currently earn their living solely from Guild Wars 2, even though they are supposedly working on at least one new game.
If End of Dragons fails, it could simultaneously signal the end of Guild Wars 2. Although the servers will certainly not be shut down quickly, new updates would likely not be planned any longer, similarly to what is currently happening in Guild Wars 1.
And indeed, ArenaNet is investing a lot of time into the new expansion. For it, they even canceled the Steam release originally planned for November 2020:
Guild Wars 2 Promises Expansion of High Quality – Cancels Steam Release
