How is WoW: Shadowlands doing after the end of Season 3? “It’s at a low point,” explains a well-known YouTuber.
Who is speaking? The information comes from YouTuber Bellular, who has analyzed data from sources like “Warcraft-Logs” and “Raider.io”. Bellular has been publishing interesting analysis videos on the current state of various MMORPGs for years, with World of Warcraft frequently being discussed.
In one of his previous videos, Bellular had already dissected the raid numbers of the Mythic raids, but these only affect a small percentage of characters. Now he has turned his attention to the more accessible raid variants – the Normal and Heroic raids.
Normal and Heroic Raids: Participation drops by over 66%
What is Bellular comparing? Bellular primarily looks at the numbers from the Normal and Heroic raids of the latest patches but sometimes also references older expansions like Legion. He examines how many active guilds defeated the first boss of a raid and then how many of those guilds were able to defeat the last boss within the same raid tier. The absolute numbers indirectly indicate player attrition – as they show a clear decline.
It is notable that Castle Nathria made an extremely impressive start. From this perspective, it was one of the most successful raids of all time and even overshadowed the Legion raids.
- Castle Nathria (Patch 9.0) had a whopping 48,419 guilds that defeated at least the first boss “Shriekwing” on Normal.
- 39,509 of these guilds also achieved the kill on the final boss “Lord Denathrius” on Normal, which is 81.60%.
- In the Sanctum of Domination (Patch 9.1), only 21,649 guilds defeated the first boss on Normal.
- Of those, 17,757 guilds made it to Sylvanas and defeated her on Normal, which is a remarkable 82.02%.
- In the Mausoleum of the First on Normal, there were still 14,393 guilds at the first boss and defeated him.
- However, only 9,798 guilds reached the Jailer, just 68.07%.
The numbers for the Heroic variant of the raid tell a very similar story; the drop in participation is roughly equal, as this graphic shows:
Where does the player attrition come from? On one hand, a certain player attrition over time is normal, but in Shadowlands, it was particularly drastic between patches. There are several reasons for this, all of which interconnect:
- Shadowlands had long periods of content drought between the patches.
- Shadowlands had extremely many mandatory systems that characters had to “grind through” if they wanted to be fit for the endgame.
- The sheer amount of systems was confusing and caused frustration.
The fact that the final boss kill in the Sanctum of Domination occurred significantly less frequently is likely due to the Sanctum being exceptionally tough and having several strong barriers along the way. Fights like Anduin, Halondrus, or even the Jailer himself were difficult. There were many mechanics that would cause a raid to fail immediately if just one person made a mistake. This alone likely caused some raid groups to break apart.
What is not included in the data? Note that the data does not yet account for the current Season 4 – after all, it is only a few weeks old. Bellular himself mentions that he is having a lot of fun in the current season and that the entry feels easier. The entire season feels “smoother” and better than the previous patches of Shadowlands.
However, whether this will ultimately lead to a better balance remains to be seen. Typically, patches only manage to slightly soften the loss of players and not attract new players. This usually only happens with the release of a new expansion.
Finally, it must also be said that from the number of raid guilds, only a limited player count can be inferred. Many casual players likely never enter the raids or only see the LFR version of them, if they see them at all. World of Warcraft supports many different play styles, and the hunt for ever better gear and tougher fights is not interesting for everyone.
Nevertheless, the data undoubtedly shows a trend, which we hope Dragonflight can break. After all, the beta has started, allowing more players to get a personal impression of the next WoW expansion.
