Since the end of Blizzard’s Titan, no major Western MMORPG has been announced for the next few years. What has dried up the MMORPG market? Part of it is also the players, we think.
In April and June 2014, The Elder Scrolls Online and WildStar were perhaps the last major Western MMORPGs to be released for the foreseeable future. Since then, fans of the genre have been asking: “Where is the next game I can wait for? What’s in the pipeline?” And the answer must be at the moment: “Actually nothing.” A completely new state for MMORPG fans who are used to being courted by several contenders for their attention.
Since the genre began, there has always been something for genre fans to look forward to. Usually, the next hope was expected in the following year. The history of Western MMORPGs is full of “the next big thing, the next big title.”
In the past, admirers lined up …
After Meridian59 came Ultima Online came Everquest came Dark Age of Camelot came Star Wars Galaxies came World of Warcraft came Lord of the Rings Online came Warhammer Online came Final Fantasy XIV came Rift came Star Wars: The Old Republic came Guild Wars 2 came The Elder Scrolls Online came WildStar. And many other titles, even important ones, were in between.
Each time the new game did not meet expectations, one could look forward to the next one. That one would have the crucial feature more. One looked forward to the next, to the better match that would do everything right, much nicer, much more attentive, much more mature than the last “ex”-game would be. But now there seems to be no “next” anymore.
Of course, some small glimmers of hope still shine. We have presented the 5 most promising MMORPGs of the next 2 years.
But with the recent controversies surrounding the former “Sony Online Entertainment,” the brightest glimmer of hope has dwindled to a flicker. Already under the article, we were asked why we did not present the “most promising” games as “more promising,” but instead painted a rather sober picture of Black Desert, Bless, Skyforge, and the other titles.
Why is no one making MMORPGs for us anymore?
If you look at which major Western MMORPGs were released in 2014, you come to two games: The Elder Scrolls Online and WildStar.
However, if you look at the standards and exclusion criteria MMORPG fans apply, you might think that 20 games have been released, from which they could pick the right one. MMORPG players think they are the school beauty, deciding with whom they will go to the ice cream parlor among 300 applicants. Just as it has been all those years, where studios tried to cut a slice of the WoW cake and courted the MMORPG target group.
However, the reality now looks different: We are no longer the sought-after beauty; we are picky, and no one likes us.
But how do we deal with the few applicants for our attention?
The Elder Scrolls Online was quickly dismissed by many MMORPG fans, hardly given a glance: No open world? Weird single-player title trying to be an MMORPG? Ugh, what’s up with that combat system? Not for me! Next please!
WildStar had even worse cards with many: Kiddo graphics? Space stuff? Hardcore stuff? WoW clone! I’m out. Next please! And suddenly the waiting room was empty.
But what would you do if you tried to go out with the pretty girl ten times and she rejected you every time because you did something wrong? Would you try it an eleventh time? Or just talk to someone else?
MMORPGs need to find players to survive
If these large games with long development times and high budgets cannot reach their “actual” target group, then it is only logical that other studios will not attempt the same thing the next year. It would be economic madness to stake money on poison.
In general, MMORPGs are the king class of game development. Studios work on them for years, must incorporate countless features, develop their own world, need voice actors, writers, designers, server structures, often 200, 300, 400, even 500 people work on a title for years, without generating a dime during the development time.
And it is so difficult to succeed: One competes against products that have been on the market for years, which have a huge lead in content and features. And those are precisely the two things MMORPG fans are all about.
When the games finally come out, they often suffer from growing pains; they can be like a foal that can walk, but is clumsy and keeps falling over. And at that moment they are judged, weighed, and dismissed. At that point, their fate is determined.
One shouldn’t shed tears for the poor studios, but one must understand how much effort it takes for them to court our favor. And that they cannot make a game that only caters to a few.
The games need to find a target group, and if they cannot reach the actual one, online games try to poach “outside the target group.” Titles like Skyforge or Destiny are successful models because they do not target the “MMORPG” audience, but rather the shooter or MOBA audience. These are the new school beauties with whom everyone now wants to go out …
But why are we no longer that? Aren’t there enough of us? Have we really changed so much in recent years? Have we become fewer?
Who are MMORPG fans actually?
The actual “MMORPG” fans, the core target group that games like The Elder Scrolls Online or WildStar would need to reach in order to be successful, are fragmented.
There are different groups of MMORPG fans that cannot all be reached because their playing styles and goals are not compatible. A selection:
- The Power Gamer: Wants to achieve the maximum in a game and preferably in a game, that is as big as possible and played by many. Wishes for WoW with much better graphics.
- The Star Wars Galaxies Veteran: Wants to immerse in a game and let go, preferably a simulated second world that runs by its own rules. Wishes for Ultima Online with better graphics, even more features, and then he’ll see if he likes it.
- The Ex-Hardcore Gamer: Used to play a lot, is now busy with work, has only a few hours a week, but still wants a game where he can make progress and have as much fun as he used to. Wishes he could return to his youth.
- The Casual Player: Finds the idea of leveling up and getting better gear really good. Likes to meet friends and do something, but doesn’t want to play too much or read too much about the game. Wishes for something like Farmville with more MMORPG elements … preferably on a smartphone.
And now one must imagine: One wants to develop a game that reaches enough players from these target groups. And these are certainly not all!
So if that’s the case, then I won’t play it!
Only it is still the case that within these target groups, there are various complicated exclusion criteria (the numbers are made up).
- For example, 80% of power gamers reject everything that does not support the “holy trinity” of tank, healer, and damage dealer.
- In the second group, the veterans, 70% are involved, who only want to play something that goes beyond this outdated class mechanic.
- And in each group, there are 30% who strictly reject gender lock.
- 20% absolutely want contemporary graphics that only work on top machines.
- 40% never want to see a fantasy scenario again.
- 30% find science fiction silly.
- Some only want to play human-like races, while others absolutely do not want that.
- Some want first person, others wouldn’t mind trying iso.
- One gamer plays nothing without housing, the next one doesn’t touch something with daily quests.
- Fully voiced quests are the ideal for one, while for the other it’s exactly what has ruined MMORPGs.
- The first absolutely wants PvP, the second does not, and the third actually doesn’t play PvP but wants it because it somehow belongs to it.
- Mandatory open PvP is heaven for some, hell for others.
- For some, “small zones” are dreadful.
- One exclaims: “I won’t touch a game without a story!”
- Another has to have an action combat system, but not too hardcore, just … yes, just right … it must be perfect.
This is not negotiable!
And all these wishes and ideas are non-negotiable for certain parts of the groups. It’s enough when someone had a bad experience with some second-rate game six years ago. That sticks with them and manifests as: Never again lava zones! It’s a bit like discovering a worm or insect in a certain type of vegetable and making a clear oath: “Never again apple!”
Sounds drastic and as if we are exaggerating? Just look at how discussions are held about new game announcements.
This is said among indie games: It looks like it’s from the 80s.
Among free-to-play titles: It’s definitely pay-to-win; I won’t put up with that scam.
Under “classic games”: WoW clones.
Under “Asian games”: Gender lock! I don’t play that.
The perhaps currently strongest alternative to WoW, “Final Fantasy XIV”, has recently been outright rejected by someone, because: “Every race looks like a girl!”
Of course, the developers are also to blame
So that we do not misunderstand: Of course, studios have messed up a lot during the “We can just make a ton of money if we create a game like WoW” era. And that timeframe has also yet given us the feeling: A new game will come out in a few months! Maybe that will be the right one!
But who looks at today’s fragmented MMORPG target audience: Who can blame the studios for no longer crafting a game that meets their exact expectations?
Because each fragmented group is too small in itself for studios to “tailor” a game for them.
And by now, the Western MMO market is feared as a money pit, that even the Asian MMOs are setting different priorities to bring their games here. They first want to thoroughly investigate other Asian countries and even Russia. Soon they will seek to tap the mobile market for MMORPGs – or the games go to the consoles, as expectations here are not so high and the climate is not so hostile.
And we sulk because no one wants to invite us to the ice cream parlor anymore.
So what is to be done?
What remains to be done, now that such a bleak picture of the future is painted?
On the one hand, you can look at the games currently available on the market, as they are no longer clumsy foals. Some have blossomed into proud steeds. 2015 is likely to be a year to focus on existing titles: Final Fantasy XIV (Heavensward) and Guild Wars 2 (Heart of Thorns) are getting expansions, TESO 2015 has nothing to do with what came out in 2014, and The Secret World has recently received a makeover and is certainly worth a look.
For the faction that has mourned MMORPGs from the pre-WoW era for years, there are projects from indie developers who feel the same way and are trying to provide something for this matured audience.
For friends of the “WoW is to blame for everything” thesis, we recommend this video:
On the other hand: As hard as it may be for many, one must also reconsider one’s own views on whether every wish is truly etched in stone to which one simply cannot deviate. The starting position has changed: The applicants are no longer lining up.
The alternatives are a genre change or complain that studios simply no longer make games for them and that there are only watered-down MMO-light games. That can be fun, but it also loses its appeal over time.
The MMORPG player who wants something to play in the genre in the coming years will have to learn to make compromises. As a target group, we are simply not in demand as we used to be.
