In Blizzard’s strategic online card game Hearthstone, there are three questions that the world is asking: When is it coming to Android? What is the best deck? What are the odds of getting a legendary card per pack? At least we can answer the last question for you today.
On the website kotaku.com, Steve Marinconz has extensively analyzed the distribution of cards in the 5-professional packs. He reviewed YouTube videos in which players publicly opened large quantities of packs to share the results with the viewers. A total of 1000 packs were opened, resulting in 5000 cards being recorded. Marinconz has now evaluated this selection.
A bit rarer than in every seventh egg – more like in every sixteenth
The probability of having at least one legendary card in a professional pack is 6.33%. One or more epic cards can be found with a probability of 19.33%, approximately in every fifth pack. And in 98.11% of cases, there is at least one common card in the professional pack. The most common distribution of the 5 cards is “4100”: Here, the player receives four common cards and one rare card. 61% of all packs exhibit this distribution. The second most common distribution (by a significant margin) is at 12.2% – here, a player receives 3 common and 2 rare cards.
The mathematical probability of hitting the jackpot and opening a pack containing 5 legendary cards is, by the way, 1 in a million. The chance of obtaining a pack with 5 golden legendary cards is 1 in 3.2 billion, making it approximately 43 times rarer than a 6 with an additional number in the lottery.
