The fantasy MMORPG Guild Wars 2 relies on smaller events every two weeks, but can that keep fans engaged for longer? Rumors of a change in strategy are intensifying.
The Allure of the New Fades
The NCSoft financial report from a week ago made it clear: Guild Wars 2 earned a third less in the first three months of 2014 compared to the same period a year ago.
[quote_right]Expansions bring fresh air[/quote_right]
And that’s only natural. Every game and every MMO loses part of its player base after a while. Very few MMOs have managed to stop this downward trend with expansions and new content, the so-called content, including World of Warcraft, at least for a while, and a niche title like EVE Online.
Just World of Warcraft benefits enormously from the announcement, beta, and release of a new expansion – and with each major content patch that follows. During these times, fan interest, subscriber numbers, and media coverage increase.
Living Story: Constant Content Flow or Just Fast Food?
Guild Wars 2, on the other hand, has to do without these surges in popularity. Instead, it relies on smaller content morsels that are supposed to tell a larger story: the Living Story, the Living World.
The problem is: Much of this content consists of small events that quickly disappear from the game. This divides the player base.
While part of the fan base, often casual players, attentively listens to the background story and looks forward to what ArenaNet has thought up every two weeks, others are quite skeptical. In two years, too little has happened. There are still the same trains moving through the landscapes to complete certain event sequences. And aside from the fractals and a few goodies, not much has happened otherwise. The Living Story only provides content for a few hours and then becomes dull and uninteresting.
Are Players Simply Expecting the Wrong Thing?
This also raises the question of what expectations players can have of an MMO. Should it be the only game they play? Or a title they return to regularly, but can also leave untouched for a month? But then wouldn’t they have missed two smaller events in Guild Wars 2?
But perhaps Guild Wars 2 is primarily targeting casual players: With the daily and monthly tasks that can be completed in GW2, the game is heavily aimed at people who consume just a homeopathic dose of the game every day. Quickly completing 5 of the changing tasks in 15 minutes, pocketing a laurel as a daily reward (which must be collected for particularly strong items), and then logging out. The same routine the next day.
A behavior that resembles a browser game – or a game in a content drought.
The China Expansion Takes Priority
How ArenaNet views this is still a mystery. Some time ago, they made it clear that they do not rule out an expansion. Then it was said that this must wait until the expansion in China is completed. After that, they might comment on it, or maybe not.
Recently, a dubious recording of a conversation between a player and an alleged developer surfaced on reddit. The person expressed skepticism about an expansion. All the content that ArenaNet has released as patches, other publishers would have sold as paid expansions.
In the conversation, the alleged dev hinted that for the second season of the Living World, which is approaching, some significant plans have been made. The events are supposed to be even bigger and also leave lasting changes.
Are Different Laws Applicable for a Buy-to-Play Game?
When looking at the numbers and the reactions from fans, one has to conclude that the Living World model, with only small changes that quickly fade, has at least partially failed. It hasn’t been enough to keep all players engaged with the game long-term. Especially for gamers who want to be married to just one MMO, the seemingly constant content flow has proven too thin. These players would likely be the customers who would also invest in the in-game shop.
If ArenaNet succeeds in bringing new content with the second season that offers something to these players, Guild Wars 2 could stop the current downward trend. It is certainly important not just to introduce “more of the same” or cosmetic changes, but also to slightly alter the gaming experience.
The status of a “buy-to-play” game, where players pay once and can return to the world repeatedly, has recently shown its downsides. Some players are voicing complaints about unfriendly support treatment in the case of bans. In players’ minds, it immediately comes up: “They already have my money, they don’t need to be nice to me anymore.”
It is questionable whether a “pay-to-play” game could afford to imply relatively clearly that Europe and the further development of the game are being put on the back burner in favor of an expansion to China. On the other hand, World of Warcraft is by far the largest “pay-to-play” game and regularly allows content breaks of up to a year. In contrast, Guild Wars 2’s small China drought seems rather minor.
An announcement about where the second season of the Living Story will head is expected in the next few days. We will keep you updated on this.
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