Have you ever wondered why you never get a legendary SCAR from a treasure chest in Fortnite: Battle Royale? The odds of that happening are minuscule, right? What was previously just a feeling can now be backed up with numbers. We have the official numbers for all items from treasure chests for you!
The beginning of a Fortnite: Battle Royale round can decisively influence the outcome of a match. With a bit of loot luck, you can already set off with great weapons that give you an advantage over your enemies.
Since Epic has released the API, it is now possible to view the exact loot chances from treasure chests using the Fortnite Tracker. The following probabilities have been directly extracted from Epic’s assets and are therefore official.
The likelihood of getting a specific item from a chest
Every time you open a treasure chest, you are guaranteed to receive some items. You will always drop
- A weapon
- A consumable item like bandages or shield potions
- Resources
What exactly you receive is always left to chance. Some items, however, drop significantly more often from chests than others. You will almost always find low-quality items, while an epic SCAR or even a heavy weapon is extremely rare.
When you open a chest, you will receive a weapon of the following category in descending order:
| Weapon Type | Probability |
| Assault Rifle | 37.00% |
| Burst Assault Rifle | 24.00% |
| SMG | 24.00% |
| Sniper | 6.00% |
| Silenced Pistols | 5.00% |
| Heavy Weapons | 4.00% |
In more than 50% of all cases, you will receive a weapon of the type Assault Rifle. To get a heavy weapon (rocket or grenade launcher), you need to be very lucky.
Along with a firearm, you will also always receive a random consumable item. The distribution is as follows:
| Name | Quantity | Probability |
| Shield Potion (rare) | 1 | 23.80% |
| Bandages (common) | 5 | 19.80% |
| Granade (common) | 3 | 15.90% |
| Mini Shield Potion (uncommon) | 3 | 15.90% |
| Medkit (uncommon) | 1 | 7.90% |
| Slurp Juice (epic) | 1 | 6.30% |
| Boogie Bomb (rare) | 1 | 4.80% |
| Smoke Grenade (uncommon) | 5 | 3.20% |
| Bush (legendary) | 1 | 2.40% |
The bush, as the only legendary representative, drops with a probability of only 2.4% from a treasure chest. Otherwise, the list should confirm the impression of many players. Shield potions, bandages, and grenades frequently drop from treasure chests.
You are also guaranteed to receive resources from a treasure chest. The number of resources is always the same and drops in stacks of 30. The probability of a particular resource is not always the same, as the following table shows:
| Name | Quantity | Probability |
| Wood | 30 | 47.60% |
| Stone | 30 | 35.70% |
| Metal | 30 | 16.70% |
Buildings made of wood are the easiest to destroy, which is why the much sturdier materials like stone and metal are less likely to appear.
We now know how often a specific weapon category can drop from a treasure chest. But how rare is a SCAR really? What is the probability of getting a legendary rocket launcher?
Drop distribution of assault rifles in Fortnite: Battle Royale
There is a 37% chance of getting an assault rifle from a chest. But which assault rifle exactly? Let’s take a look at the numbers:
| Name | Probability |
| Assault Rifle (common) | 51.80% |
| Assault Rifle (uncommon) | 25.90% |
| Assault Rifle (rare) | 10.40% |
| Scoped Assault Rifle (rare) | 5.20% |
| SCAR (epic) | 3.90% |
| Scoped Assault Rifle (epic) | 1.90% |
| SCAR (legendary) | 1.00% |
The chance of getting a standard assault rifle in common, uncommon, or rare rarity is nearly 90%. On average, in one out of a hundred chests containing an assault rifle, you will receive a legendary SCAR. So if you find one, consider yourself lucky.
Drop distribution of burst assault rifles in Fortnite: Battle Royale
Burst assault rifles are dropped with a probability of 24%. Since there are only three representatives, the distribution is manageable:
| Name | Probability |
| Burst Assault Rifle (common) | 80.00% |
| Burst Assault Rifle (uncommon) | 16.00% |
| Burst Assault Rifle (rare) | 4.00% |
With only 4%, the probability of receiving a rare burst assault rifle is extremely low.
Drop distribution of SMGs in Fortnite: Battle Royale
With one of the latest updates, SMGs were expanded to include a silenced variant. You can find up to nine different representatives in the chests. The chance of finding an SMG is identical to burst assault rifles (24%).
The distribution of chances is as follows:
| Name | Probability |
| SMG (common) | 40.40% |
| Silenced SMG (common) | 32.30% |
| SMG (uncommon) | 8.10% |
| Silenced SMG (uncommon) | 6.50% |
| Tactical SMG (uncommon) | 6.10% |
| SMG (rare) | 2.00% |
| Tactical SMG (rare) | 2.00% |
| Silenced SMG (rare) | 1.60% |
| Tactical SMG (epic) | 1.00% |
The chance of getting just a common SMG is quite high at over 70%. For an epic tactical SMG, you really need to be very lucky. The best SMG, the standard variant with rare rarity, also only drops with a probability of 2%.
Drop distribution of sniper rifles in Fortnite: Battle Royale
Sniper rifles are among the best weapons in Fortnite and allow you to eliminate enemies from great distances. However, you need a bit more luck to find a sniper in a chest. Because they only give you a sniper in 6% of cases.
To find a legendary bolt-action sniper, you really need to be very lucky, as the numbers demonstrate:
| Name | Probability |
| Bolt-Action Sniper (rare) | 65.00% |
| Semi-Automatic Sniper (epic) | 22.80% |
| Bolt-Action Sniper (epic) | 8.10% |
| Semi-Automatic Sniper (legendary) | 2.40% |
| Bolt-Action Sniper (legendary) | 1.60% |
The chance of getting the better bolt-action sniper is a solid 75%. In most cases, the rare variant is enough to take out your enemies.
Drop distribution of silenced pistols in Fortnite: Battle Royale
With a probability of 5%, you will receive one of the two new silenced pistols from a treasure chest. Unsurprisingly, in most cases, you will receive the epic variant:
| Name | Probability |
| Silenced Pistol (epic) | 80.00% |
| Silenced Pistol (legendary) | 20.00% |
The new pistols are particularly popular on PC, and can quickly send enemies back to the lobby.
Drop distribution of heavy weapons in Fortnite: Battle Royale
Heavy weapons are divided into rocket launchers and grenade launchers. Especially in the endgame, these weapons are worth their weight in gold as they are great for leveling enemy fortifications.
Due to their high value, it is extremely rare to find such a weapon in a chest. Only in 4% of all cases will a chest contain a heavy weapon. If you also want to find an epic or even legendary variant, you need to keep your fingers crossed:
| Name | Probability |
| grenade launcher (rare) | 57.10% |
| rocket launcher (rare) | 28.60% |
| grenade launcher (epic) | 7.60% |
| rocket launcher (epic) | 3.80% |
| grenade launcher (legendary) | 1.90% |
| rocket launcher (legendary) | 1.00% |
You will only get a legendary rocket launcher in one out of one hundred chests with a heavy weapon. It is therefore the rarest item in the entire game mode. You should always take a legendary rocket launcher with you if you come across one.
Do the numbers confirm your impressions? Or are you surprised? Let us know in the comments!
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