For millennia, vineyards have shaped the image of the Mediterranean region. Now a graphic shows that these regions may soon no longer be suitable for viticulture – but the representation also sparks debates.
What exactly does the new map show? According to a post by The European Correspondent, which references current climate models and surveys, new scenarios indicate a drastic change: The wine-growing areas around the Mediterranean – including Spain, Italy, Greece, or the south of France – may soon become hardly suitable for traditional viticulture due to rising temperatures and increasing drought periods by the middle of the century.
In contrast, northern countries like Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, or even parts of Scandinavia may become better suited for wine cultivation in the future.
How dramatic is the situation really?
Why is the map controversial? While The European Correspondent emphasizes the urgency of climatic developments on TikTok, there is plenty of criticism in the comments – particularly regarding the depicted map.
A brief look explains why: Traditional wine-growing regions such as Styria (Austria), Jerez (southern Spain), or Alentejo (Portugal) are missing – as well as significant parts of Germany, France, or Switzerland.
In almost all involved countries, there are such gaps. As Xataka clearly shows, this is due to the data basis of the map, the so-called Huglin Index. This index summarizes temperature sums during the growing season (April to September) — considering both daily average and maximum temperatures as well as the geographical location. The warmer an area is over the season, the higher the Huglin Index and the more suitable it is for heat-loving grape varieties (via meteoblue).
As the index rises everywhere in the future (hotter summers due to the climate crisis), the suitable zones for viticulture are shifting northward.
Is the Huglin Index appropriate? The map focuses on the shift in suitability for cultivation: Mediterranean regions rise into higher Huglin Index categories, while areas that were previously too cool in northern Europe become attractive for viticulture. This is also confirmed by a Hungarian study documenting a continuous increase in the index across several wine regions (Frontiers).
However, the Huglin Index can only represent thermal suitability — it does not consider precipitation, frost risks, soil conditions, or sunshine duration, which are equally crucial for actual wine quality and the success of cultivation (via State Portal Rhineland-Palatinate).
The Huglin Index and the corresponding map indicates: Climate change is fundamentally altering European viticulture. How dramatic this will be will become clearer in the coming years. However, there is currently no concrete research on the Europe-wide shift of cultivation areas.
What viticulture goes through is also experienced by other sectors of agriculture. How creative some solutions can be is illustrated by an exciting case from the energy transition: In one country, 1,700 sheep were investigated that graze between solar panels – with surprising results
