The debate has been going on for decades: How severely do pirated copies really impact developers? We now know the answer thanks to a study on Denuvo.
What is the question? For a long time, there has been disagreement about how financially harmful pirated copies really are. They cause damage and are illegal, no question about it. But how dangerous are they truly for the financial success of a video game?
A new scientific study (via sciencedirect) has found through extensive data analysis of past releases when pirated copies are particularly harmful, what role copy protection plays, and whether certain characteristics of games attract hackers. Denuvo was the focus as the most widely used software of this kind.
By the way, you can meet real pirates in abundance in Ubisoft’s Skull and Bones:
Denuvo: It Depends on the Release Timing
How much do pirated copies harm video game developers? It depends on when a copy protection fails:
- If Denuvo is cracked by hackers within the first two weeks, about 20 percent of all revenue is lost over the entire lifecycle of the title.
- This value decreases each week; after 28 days, the differences in revenue between cracked and intact Denuvo are minimal.
- If the protection is only breached after 12 weeks, the difference is virtually zero. On average, from this point on, it doesn’t matter whether the game is still protected by Denuvo or not.
How long does Denuvo typically withstand hackers? 75 percent of all Denuvo protections hold up for about seven weeks. 50 percent are cracked after five months. From here on, the curve flattens: After just over a year, cracks have emerged for 3/4 of all Denuvo titles.
What does the study recommend to publishers and developers? It is advisable to try to maintain protection for two to three months. After that, it can be removed. Studios should rather take advantage of the positive marketing associated with the removal.
Why is there so much potential loss initially? Even today, it is still the case that developers and publishers sell the most copies of a newly released game. On top of that, the price is also at its highest at this time. Sales after six months are still relevant, but if a freshly released game sells far below expectations in the first month, it is usually a flop; and thus often harms the developers in the long run.
Are some games cracked particularly quickly or often? No, the characteristics of a game, whether it is a shooter, an RPG, or anything else, do not matter. Furthermore, hackers do not care whether certain publishers are behind the title. It can hit any title earlier or later.
High-speed internet connections are not only needed by pirates for their illegal activities, but generally, it is nice to be able to download large amounts of data quickly nowadays. In times when even individual patches can be dozens of gigabytes, many would probably like to have such a connection: With the fastest internet connection in the world, you can download Baldur’s Gate 3 or even the new CoD in just a few milliseconds
